Wheat takes a small jump, canola drops

One day does not a bottom make.

That was the attitude being taken by broker Ken Ball Monday after wheat futures contracts moved up a few cents on all three exchanges after marking minor gains in previous days.

“They’ll occasionally bounce,” said P.I. Financial’s Ball.

“One of these bounces of course will be the low. It could be today, it could be six weeks from now, it could be six months from now.”

Unfortunately for prairie grain growers, spring wheat futures were the weakest of the three wheat classes, rising six and five cents per bushel on the March and May contracts while Kansas City hard red winter rose eight and six cents and Chicago wheat rose eight and seven.

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Weakness in soy oil helped push canola to losses, with the March contract falling $3.80 per tonne to $426.40 and May dropping the same amount to $436.60.

Short-covering was a feature in the peppy markets, analysts said, but probably not evidence of the bottom being reached.

Canola’s weakness was evidents as its price fell while while U.S. soybeans rose. Soybean prices are supported by strong soybean meal values while canola is being weakened by the continual erosion of soybean oil prices.

Still, the modest gains in U.S. crop prices  since late last week cheered the dour mood in  crop futures markets, which has mostly fallen since harvest.

Strong U.S. export sales data last week helped soybean futures hit a two-week high while strong exports for both corn and soybean meal suggested those commodities could keep clearing.

Developing dryness in Brazil that could stress late developing crops helped solidify the positive mood. On the other hand, Argentina got more rain overnight, solidifying good yield prospects.

While traders like Ball assumed much of the positive action was due to traders short-covering, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported Friday that speculators had expanded their net short position in Chicago wheat to a three week peak.

Crops were the strongest commodity classes Monday, while overall the commodities complex was neutral.

The world’s stock markets were far more lively, with another ugly drubbing as emerging market anxieties reduce analysts’ expectations for world growth. Weak U.S. manufacturing activity in January added to the sour mood, as did a report showing Chinese service sector growth slowed, hitting a five-year low,

Janet Yellen was sworn in as the new Federal Reserve Bank chair, replacing Ben Bernanke.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2014    426.40    -3.80    -0.88%

Canola May 2014    436.60    -3.80    -0.86%
Canola Jul 2014    445.30    -3.70    -0.82%
Canola Nov 2014    460.80    -3.60    -0.78%
Canola Jan 2015    466.30    -3.60    -0.77%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014    177.00    -2.00    -1.12%
Milling Wheat May 2014    181.00    -1.00    -0.55%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014    184.00    -1.00    -0.54%

Durum Wheat Mar 2014    245.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014    249.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014    250.00    unch    0.00%

Barley Mar 2014    126.50    unch    0.00%
Barley May 2014    128.50    unch    0.00%
Barley Jul 2014    128.50    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2014    1292.75    +10    +0.78%
Soybeans May 2014    1278.25    +9.75    +0.77%
Soybeans Jul 2014    1262.25    +10.25    +0.82%
Soybeans Aug 2014    1220    +9.5    +0.78%
Soybeans Sep 2014    1151    +6.5    +0.57%
Soybeans Nov 2014    1108.5    +4    +0.36%

Soybean Meal Mar 2014    434    +7.9    +1.85%
Soybean Meal May 2014    417.1    +6    +1.46%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014    406.5    +6    +1.50%

Soybean Oil Mar 2014    37.45    -0.19    -0.50%
Soybean Oil May 2014    37.76    -0.17    -0.45%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014    38.09    -0.16    -0.42%

Corn Mar 2014    435.75    +1.75    +0.40%
Corn May 2014    441.75    +2.25    +0.51%
Corn Jul 2014    446.75    +2.75    +0.62%
Corn Sep 2014    449    +2.75    +0.62%

Corn Dec 2014    453    +3    +0.67%

Oats Mar 2014    414.75    +9    +2.22%
Oats May 2014    368.25    +7    +1.94%
Oats Jul 2014    337.5    +5.75    +1.73%
Oats Sep 2014    310.25    +2.25    +0.73%
Oats Dec 2014    295.75    +3.75    +1.28%

Wheat Mar 2014    563.75    +8    +1.44%
Wheat May 2014    565.75    +7.5    +1.34%
Wheat Jul 2014    568.75    +7.25    +1.29%
Wheat Sep 2014    577    +7    +1.23%
Wheat Dec 2014    589.75    +7    +1.20%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014    610.75    +6.75    +1.12%
Spring Wheat May 2014    604.75    +5.5    +0.92%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014    611.5    +4    +0.66%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014    620.5    +4.5    +0.73%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014    632.75    +4    +0.64%

Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014    624.25    +8.75    +1.42%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014    617.75    +6.75    +1.10%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014    610.5    +7.75    +1.29%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014    619.75    +7.25    +1.18%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014    632.25    +6.5    +1.04%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.06 at $96.43 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.29 cents US, up from 89.94 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1076 Cdn.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 208.74 points, or 1.52 percent, at 13,486.20, after falling to as low as 13,450.31, its weakest level since Dec. 24.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 326.05 points or 2.08 percent, to 15,372.8.

The S&P 500 lost 40.7 points or 2.28 percent, to 1,741.89.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 106.919 points or 2.61 percent, to 3,996.95