WINNIPEG – This summer marks the first time wheat and canola producers
across the Prairies have access to plant disease forecast maps based on
computer models of their regions.
In some cases, the disease maps are specific down to the field level.
Disease forecast maps warn producers of imminent plant disease
outbreaks that might require treatment. If plant disease probability is
low, the maps help producers decide if they can safely skip an
expensive fungicide application.
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The disease forecast maps, produced by the Agrometeorological Centre of
Excellence based in Carman. Man., predict the probability of
sclerotinia in canola and fusarium head blight in wheat. The Western
Producer is carrying the maps until the plant disease risk subsides.
The predictions are generated by computer models based on factors such
as the amount and duration of rainfall, humidity, local disease
history, temperature, local soil types, leaf moisture, wind and time.
Manitoba data is fed into the computer every 15 minutes from a network
of 200 reporting stations located in farmers’ fields. Each field
station is programmed to collect information relevant to that area.
The program is still in its infancy in Saskatchewan, where 30 reporting
stations went on-line this spring, and Alberta where 15 stations were
activated this year.
“For 2002, we have more accurate predictions in Manitoba simply
because we have so many data collection points transmitting
information,” said ACE co-ordinator Andrew Nadler.
He said data for Saskatchewan and Alberta come mainly from Environment
Canada stations, so these forecasts are more regional rather than
specific to an exact location.
“As we get more stations in Saskatchewan and Alberta, we’ll produce
more specific forecasting maps in those provinces.”
He said the long-range goal is to develop a continuous network of
stations in farmers’ fields right across the Prairies.
Nadler said Environment Canada had been developing software for the
fusarium and sclerotinia computer models for a number of years before
ACE came on the scene.
“They had the canola computer model all worked out, but they needed
more precise input data from a larger number of stations. That’s
something we were able to provide, so we transferred their canola model
into our system. It’s working extremely well.”
The ACE computer is also running software for an alfalfa model, which
determines relative feed value and recommends when to cut.
The forage field stations collect data on growing degree days and
transmit the information to the computer in Carman. Producers can dial
in requirements for dairy cows, dairy calves, export hay or various
beef options. The central computer tracks the stage of plant
development and sends the information to the producers’.
When the ACE system started, it was designed primarily to provide
disease forecasting information to Manitoba potato producers. Because
potatoes usually require a dozen or more fungicide treatments per year,
there was an obvious need for better information on disease
thresholds. Potato growers on the system say it has proven to be a
valuable crop management tool.
Nadler said ACE is working with the Potato Growers Association of
Alberta and is looking at possible expansion into the irrigated areas
of Alberta and Outlook, Sask.
“We also have some very good software for predicting disease in
chickpeas, so that’s another thing that can provide an immediate
benefit in Saskatchewan.”
In areas where ACE has field stations, individual farmers can subscribe
and have a station on their land for an annual fee of $2,850. They get
a daily report on conditions specific to that farm. And in many cases,
a group of producers with adjacent farmland have joined together to
share the cost of one field station.
Producers who farm close to an existing ACE field station can subscribe
for $500 per year and receive all reports from their neighbour’s
station.
