Sample rates
Your report on the pork recall (Dec. 20, 2001) was interesting. While
the spin doctors of pork proclaimed the recall indicated the quality
control system was functioning properly, the numbers presented warrant
a second look.
Six pigs in 18,000 processed per week are tested for antibiotic
residue, or one in 3,000. The problem was reported to have been caused
by a group of 215 hogs from one source. Divide 215 into 3,000 to find
the chance of detection was one in 14.
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Conversely, the chance of the problem group slipping though undetected
was 13 in 14. In percentage terms, there was a seven percent chance of
detection and a 93 percent chance of no detection.
These odds are for a group of 215 hogs, provided that all animals in
the group carried the residue. Consider the possibility of a small
producer shipping a group of 25 hogs.
Divide 25 into 3,000 for a chance of detection of one in 120, or less
than one percent. The chance of 25 hogs with antibiotics being
undetected is 119 in 120, over 99 percent.
The real problem here seems to be the low sample rate of one in 3,000
animals. Is the purpose of this ‘quality control’ program to actually
control the quality of pork, or is it merely smoke and mirrors to aid
marketing the product?
I wonder if the pork producers would be satisfied if their suppliers,
such as Agco or John Deere, operated manufacturing facilities in which
the quality control systems had similar loopholes?
The size of source lots and the number of sources must be considered in
setting the sample rate for reliable detection of errors.
By coincidence, the December 2001 issue of the journal of a
professional society, unrelated to pork production, came to my hands
about the same time as I received the subject Western Producer. It
featured an editorial on quality control that included the following
words:
“However, if failures resulting from inadequate practice by a few of
our members receive sufficient public notice, there likely will be
pressures for government regulation of our professions. While most
would agree this would not achieve better results, it appears in
today’s society to be a typical reaction whenever something goes wrong.”
It appears the concern of the professional society should also be the
concern of the pork industry.
– Allan Liggins,
Coquitlam, B.C.
Manning legacy
As Preston Manning embarks on at least a temporary hiatus from active
politics, those who wish to heap praise upon him seem to have forgotten
at least some of their history.
Manning wasn’t the first to raise a third party to prominence in
Parliament. In fact, the Progressive Party united Ontario and prairie
farmers under one banner in 1920 and the following year became the
second largest party in Parliament.
Unfortunately for them, as is the case today with the former Reform
party, they failed to stay unified and many went to either the CCF or
the renamed Progressive Conservatives.
Sound familiar? We witnessed Manning’s belief in his “implicit trust in
people” through his well engineered though blatantly autocratic United
Alternative initiative. We saw him willing to take risks when he
thought he held all the cards, though he failed to realize that his own
leadership was viewed as a liability, thus weakening his hand.
While any serious thought of western separation has been quieted, I
wonder how long that will be the case should the remnants of the
current opposition party fold back into the conservative tent that it
had once abandoned?
From my viewpoint, Mr. Manning created a political vehicle that gave
voice to western Canadian concerns, yet one that gave way on its
principles in order to satisfy Manning’s personal theories and dreams.
I would liken it to looking after your grandmother, but where the
welfare of the lady is secondary to your desire to inherit her house
and the lot next to it.
In the end, the dreams of the party membership succumbed to the
ill-conceived hopes of its founder and that, unfortunately, will be
Manning’s lasting political legacy.
– Ron Thornton,
Edmonton, Alta.
Just dropped in
We once partook in Dunlop-style advertising (Things Crop Up, WP, Jan.
3) without intending to. The time was July 27, 1972. We operated a
14-space primitive riverside campsite along the Yellowhead Highway 30
miles east of Terrace, B.C.
About 9 p.m. a small plane droned overhead following the Skeena river
on its way to next day’s Terrace airshow. Suddenly the plane lost oil
pressure. The pilot needed to land soon.
He had noticed the collection of trailers and tents in our campsite,
returned, and flew lower for a closer look.
As it happened, we had roofed a portion of the generator shed with half
a sheet of recycled plywood, formerly a hand-lettered business sign.
Face up in bold black letters 10 inches high were the words Pioneer
Campsite.
Reading the roof, the pilot landed nearby on the highway, taxied into
our campsite, and asked if we could shelter his $35,000 modified single
seater overnight.
The pilot, Cliff Howard, was a Boeing test pilot from Seattle who
performed stunts at airshows each summer.
Painted on the fuselage were the names of half a dozen airshows he
toured, including Abbotsford, B.C., and Reno, Nevada.
We helped him tether his Taylorcraft to three rocks for the night. He
hitched a ride into Terrace and next morning early returned with a
mechanic.
That Christmas, Howard sent us an autographed photo of him standing
below T-Minus-II’s left wing. On the fuselage had been painted one more
name – Pioneer Campsite, Terrace, B.C.
– Claudette Sandecki,
Terrace, B.C.
First step
With great sadness I read in The Western Producer that the NDP
government of Manitoba banned cervid harvesting preserves, arguably the
first step in banning all hunting.
Premier (Gary) Doer and his NDP government should be ashamed of
themselves for being so ignorant about cervid harvesting preserves.
Their action is a very clear indication that the Manitoba NDP
government does not support small farms and value-added products. It
appears that some other governments are controlled by animal rights
terrorists as well.
It is also quite obvious that Rob Sinclair has his head in the fish
barrel. He should hang his head in shame for showing that he simply
does not know anything about hunting.
If he did, he would be telling the public that hunting on cervid
harvest preserves is much better and more humane than the so- called
normal hunting and slaughter practices.
What is Rob Sinclair’s hidden agenda? After he eliminates cervid
harvest preserves and destroys the livelihood of many small farmers,
will he and animal rights terrorists target all hunting? My bet says
that he will.
Why are hunters not waking up to this fact?
– Gilbert Lowe,
Sexsmith, Alta.
Power rates
A $70 million profit was reported to have been made by our crown
corporation Saskatchewan Power. They are talking about raising our
power rates once more. What is the matter with our government?
We are the second poorest province in Canada. This means that a good
portion of our one million people are living below the poverty line.
This also means that many depend on our multi-social programs and
really cannot afford another price hike just to generate a higher
profit margin for the Saskatchewan Power Corporation.
The Saskatchewan Power Corporation is a provincial crown
corporation…. The Saskatchewan government is run by the people of
Saskatchewan, or so they say. Well then, let the people of Saskatchewan
ease your financial pressures by reaping the rewards of their
generosity by giving each and every one of them a share of the profits
so that they can afford the price hikes. Give each and every man, woman
and child their $70,000 profit earnings, tax exempt and let them take
care of their own affairs.
I challenge you to give our tired social workers, student loan
employees, food banks, financial institutions (and) unemployment
insurance a break and let them rest their tired attitudes towards the
people they are purported to serve and give the people back control of
their own lives….
I challenge you to do the right thing. Mr. Calvert, you are the premier
of Saskatchewan. You are the head of all of our so-called profit-making
corporations. Give the people you represent a small portion of their
profits and let them invest or waste it as they see fit. …
We are tired of governments who do not care about their people. We are
tired of being poor. We are tired of losing our homes, our farms and we
are especially tired of not being able to meet the needs of our
families because our government is wasting our money on failed
investments or companies that just want to get their hands into our
pockets.
I challenge you to do the right thing, not more of the same thing.
– Lise Costley,
Mossbank, Sask.
Solve problems
Being from rural Illinois, U.S.A., and interested in what can be done
to protect a healthful environment for life on earth, your article on
rural messes in Ontario (and) Quebec sent chills throughout me.
I wish the environmental problems created by poor quality farming
techniques, here and there, could be recognized as such and solved with
the vigour brought forth on Sept. 11.
I have faith that it will be done, but, sorry to say, only after a
terrible crisis.
– Margaret Mitchell,
Galesburg, Illinois
Connections
In a letter to the editor ( Jan. 10), Jeff Wilson, described as an
Orton, Ont., farmer, criticized McCains for refusing to accept
genetically modified potatoes.
Wilson goes on to claim that his customers – members of the public, he
implies – prefer his GM corn and potatoes to non-GM alternatives.
Something about Jeff Wilson’s letter didn’t ring true. This guy must be
a paid member of AgCare, I thought. A quick check on the internet
revealed that he was AgCare’s former chairman and current executive
member.
AgCare relentlessly trumpets the alleged benefits of GM crops.
If Monsanto isn’t funding AgCare and Wilson, it should be.
– Darrin Qualman,
Executive Secretary,
National Farmers Union,
Saskatoon, Sask.
