The world wants more pork and Canada is positioned to supply it.
Carlos Pi–eiro, manager of research and development for a large hog company in Spain, told the Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium in Saskatoon that global pork consumption has risen by an average of 2.4 percent a year for the last decade and will top 103 million tonnes by the end of this year. Much of that growth has been in Asia, particularly China.
Chinese production can’t keep up with demand, Pi–eiro said, and a limited land and resource base will constrain hog production growth in Asia generally. In fact, Chinese production may fall, he added.
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“Demand will continue to increase over the coming decades, but production isn’t going to be growing in Asia and Europe and that means opportunities for you (farmers and investors) in Canada,” said Pi–eiro, whose company, Pigchamp Europa S.A. Proinserga Group in Spain, produces 2.3 million slaughter hogs a year and kills and packs more than five million annually.
Canada has an opportunity to increase production dramatically, he said.
Florian Possberg of Big Sky Farms, a hog company based in Saskatchewan, said Canada is up to the challenge.
In the last 10 years Canada’s pig production has grown by almost 80 percent and slaughter numbers rose 45 percent, but 37 percent of pigs born here are shipped to the United States for feeding or slaughter.
Those pigs could be fed at home for slaughter in Canada, Possberg said.
“It works in Iowa: low priced feed, smaller barns and farms with 1,200 head operations producing their own fertilizer. I think we’ll see some growth in the Canadian industry in this area.”
But Bryan Perkins, who operates a 1,700 sow farrow to finish farm near Wainwright, Alta., said labour shortages and high costs limits growth.
Brazil is a large producer and exporter and is expected to continue to grow. Like most developing countries, it has low labour costs and a loose regulatory environment.
The U.S. will likely increase production, but it also has environmental issues in traditional production areas.
Australia is also expected to expand exports.
Before expansion in 2004, the European Union’s 15 member states produced about 205 million head annually. Those countries prefer pork to other meat and annually consume 44 kilograms per capita.
“Consumption won’t likely be going down, but production might over the next few years,” Pi–eiro said.
Germany leads EU pig production with 2.45 million sows, but will be slow to grow because of EU environmental and agriculture rules. It is a net importer of pork.
France is expected to lose some of its 1.3 million-sow production base due to environmental pressure and tourism industry protection, he said.
Denmark’s production systems and large export markets help it produce 13 million slaughter animals annually, but high production costs, including labour, limit growth and may cause future herd reductions.
Italy has expanded its production 16 percent since 1993, but remains a net importer.
In the United Kingdom, recovery from the BSE scandal and foot-and-mouth disease has been slow, so production remains low at 4.78 million animals and shows little sign of growth.
Spain’s production is growing, climbing to 26 million slaughter hogs in 2005.
The Netherlands is cutting production through government industry exit programs for farmers due to pollution concerns. Its 1.12 million sow population is expected to decline soon.
Poland produced 17 million pigs in 2004. It is expected to become a powerhouse producer and exporter over the next decade. The country has many small farms but also a new large farm production model helped by large investments from Smithfield Foods in the United States.
Russia is a wild card in the pork deck. Investment is slow because of political instability and poor infrastructure. It is a large importer of European pork.
China is the world’s largest producer with more than 470 million pigs produced from a 46 million sow herd, but it is also imports.
“Much of China’s production is based on small farms, two to four sows per farm,” Possberg said at the Nov. 10 meeting.
“That model is expected to break down as the Chinese economy expands and workers’ incomes increase and they stop producing (pigs) on these small farms.”
China also faces herd health challenges.
Possberg said China might prefer to import pork rather than increase the domestic herd.
