The Manitoba government is predicting that spring flooding in the province will be similar to 2009, when the Red River Valley had its second worst flood in 100 years.
The expansion of the floodway around Winnipeg and flood protection south of the city should limit residential property damage, but water will likely cover agricultural land and submerge roads between the city and the U.S. border this spring.
In its first flood forecast of 2011, issued Jan. 24, Manitoba Water Stewardship said snowfall, measured in water content, is slightly above average for the first weeks of January. The surveys indicated the amount of snow is equivalent to 50 to 100 millimetres of water, depending on location.
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However, heavy and frequent rain in Manitoba in 2010 has led to the second highest soil moisture levels recorded in the province, only slightly lower than soil moisture readings from 2009.
While much depends on the pace of spring melt and the timing of rainfall, the department noted there is a one in 10 chance that water levels in the Red River could match or exceed peaks from 1997, also known as the Flood of the Century in Manitoba.
Flooding of the Assiniboine River between the Shellmouth Dam and Brandon is also likely.
However, Manitoba Water Stewardship is drawing down water in the dam, located north of Russell, Man., to increase the reservoir’s storage space and mitigate downstream flooding this spring.
