In 15 years, only six of the world’s 196 countries will be net food exporters. Canada will be one of them, and within Canada, Saskatchewan and Alberta will be the sweet spots.
John Knapp, deputy minister of the Alberta agriculture department, presented that scenario to those gathered at a water conference in Lethbridge.
Troubling though this might be, considering the world’s burgeoning population, Knapp said it is an opportunity for Alberta.
“That puts us in a remarkable position to take advantage of our future,” he said. But food production is dependent on water and allocation of water will depend on public policy.
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“First and foremost, it means that agriculture will have to strengthen its social licence with the public at large.”
Knapp defines social licence as broad-based public support that enables governments to make a decision knowing most people desire and will support that decision.
In the case of water allocation, he said it would mean public support for agricultural water use.
“What do Albertans as a whole, in a largely urbanized and increasingly urban society, what do they want? Well, I’m pretty sure they do want as much of their food grown locally as possible.”
But public support will also require those with agricultural and environmental interests to continue their drive for more efficient water use.
Knapp talked about rising commodity prices and efforts on the part of China, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Saudi Arabia, among others, to secure land in Africa and other regions to safeguard future food production.
With food stocks becoming part of global trading, “it just makes fundamental good sense to lock down access to secure food supplies,” he said. “I think that changed mentality, that locking down of access at a global level, means great things for us.”
The days when land and water were readily available for lease or licence are long gone, said Knapp.
Now governments are setting priorities and making policy decisions on who gets how much, when, and under what conditions, when it comes to partitioning water rights.
