Canada might have a friendly neighbour and supporter of international trade beside Kamala Harris, if she wins the U.S. presidential election in November.
Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor who Harris named as her vice-presidential pick, has been a pro-trade supporter of agriculture, says Tim Dufault, a board member of the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council.
“From everything from his time as governor and in the House (of Representatives,) he has been for open trade, fair trade,” said Dufault, who farms near Grand Forks and has been on an international trade trip with Walz.
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“Being from an ag state, in the middle of the continent, we have to export as much as we can.”
There are deep trade ties between the upper Midwest and Western Canada, especially between Manitoba, Minnesota and Iowa, but there are also tensions between Canada and Wisconsin over dairy import restrictions.
Minnesota imports many Canadian piglets for its feeder barns and exports corn to Manitoba, and agricultural machinery is sold in each direction. Minnesota is home to Hormel, the famed manufacturer of Spam luncheon meat.
Trade has not been a central issue in the Harris campaign. Historically, Democrats tend to be less friendly toward trade than Republicans, but that difference mostly evaporated when Donald Trump assumed control of the Republican party.
Trump has championed tariffs, promoted protectionism and ripped up the Pacific Rim trade deal on his first day in office in 2016.
He terrified many Canadians and Mexicans with his threats to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement, but eventually agreed to a renegotiated deal. Canada’s supply management system was a particular irritant for Trump, and a frequent subject of his ire during his presidential term, but once the North American deal was renewed, that situation retreated from the spotlight.
Trump’s plans for the North America deal, which is up for renewal in two years, are unknown. At times he has celebrated it as an example of his winning approach to trade, in which trading partners have made concessions to retain access to the U.S. market.
He has threatened a 10 per cent tariff on imported goods if he is elected, but it is unclear whether he intends to involve Canada and Mexico in that.
The Harris campaign hasn’t said much about trade. President Joe Biden has been less vocal and combative than Trump about trade during his term, but has also shown little interest in new trade deals. On strategic technologies and materials, such as semiconductors, he has been an aggressive promoter of “industrial policy,” which focuses government support on specified areas.
Biden has used trade sanctions against Russia for its war against Ukraine. Some “Buy America” provisions in U.S. legislation have upset Canada and other trading partners.
Walz is close to Minnesota’s farmers and agriculture industry. Dufault went on the Walz-led trade mission to the U.K. and Finland in 2021, in which many Minnesota ag interests took part.
Other trips have focused on Latin America and other state trading partners.
“Minnesota has a pretty good track record when it comes to trading with the world,” said Dufault.
Canada’s consulate in Minneapolis covers Canada’s trade interests across the upper Midwest and frequently interacts with Walz. The governor was in Toronto in June on a trade trip, where he met with Canadian business and government officials.
Walz is also familiar with cross-border water issues, defence matters and energy issues. Duluth is an export port on the Great Lakes, so Minnesota is directly connected to Canada’s main eastward-facing export channel.
Harris might not become U.S. president, so Walz’s trade views might mean nothing after the election, and if she does become president, she might not base trade policy upon Walz’s views. The Democratic party and the houses of congress will have a lot of influence.
If Walz does influence trade policy, he hasn’t shown any proclivity to believe in unjustified tariffs or trade wars of choice.
Dufault said Walz is up-front and easy to deal with.
“What you see is what you get,” said Dufault. “There’s no fluff in that guy.”
