CANCUN, Mexico – An American special crops expert says that with the exception of yellow peas, the United States farm bill won’t have much impact on 2003 pulse supplies.
Lynn Virkler, a trader with L.H. Virkler & Co. Inc., expects U.S. lentil plantings will be up 25 percent to 250,000 acres.
Production is expected to rise 34 percent to 135,625 tonnes, but total lentil supply will only be up 13 percent due to low carryover.
Virkler was quick to point out those production numbers pale in comparison to estimates of 690,000 tonnes of Canadian crop in 2003.
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With peas, the analyst anticipates a nine percent rise in green acreage in the U.S. but total supply will be up only two percent to 178,294 tonnes.
Yellow peas are a different story. He expects 2003 acreage to soar 53 percent from 114,325 acres in 2002 to 175,000 acres this spring. Production will double from 75,302 tonnes to 156,490 tonnes.
When carryover is added into the equation, the total supply of American yellow peas will be up a whopping 218 percent to 172,490 tonnes.
Like Canadian prognosticators, Virkler is predicting a dramatic decline in chickpea plantings and total supply, both down by about 40 percent.
Virkler combined Canadian and American production numbers for his bean outlook because beans are traded as a North American crop.
He expects a six percent decrease in pinto acreage but a six percent increase in total supply. That’s because there is 136,080 tonnes of carryover from the 2002 crop.
“We’ve got a problem in moving this crop,” said the analyst.
Navy or white beans is a class that was “in the toilet all year long” in 2002. Virkler expects a 40 percent decline in acreage and a 19 percent drop in total supply to 369,588 tonnes in 2003. Normal demand for that class is around 300,000 tonnes.
Seeding of black beans will be down 33 percent and total supply is estimated at 188,646 tonnes, down only marginally from 2002. He said Mexico had its best black bean crop in 30 years, so it will be another tough class to move.
Growers in Canada and the U.S. will seed 74,900 acres of dark red kidney beans in 2003, down 11 percent from the previous year. Total supply will be down five percent to 63,810 tonnes.
“I don’t see a problem with moving this crop,” said Virkler, who pointed out that China had a difficult red kidney harvest in 2002.
Growers will move away from cranberry beans in 2003, with acreage falling 17 percent. Total supply is forecast to fall eight percent to 38,817 tonnes.
