Most analysts agree Canada is going to be short on top quality large green lentils but one firm has attached a number to it.
Saskatoon’s CGF Brokerage and Consulting estimates that pulse traders will get only half the supplies they need.
Judging by early crop samples and conversations with numerous processors, one of the firm’s brokers said 30 percent of the crop would grade No. 2 or better.
Using Statistics Canada’s small carry-in figure of 35,000 tonnes and an estimated average yield of 1,200 pounds per acre, Daryl Souster computed a supply of 156,744 tonnes of top quality large green lentils.
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He published the number in the company’s markets newsletter last week.
“We could have decent prices, is what I was trying to show,” said the broker.
Souster said the percentage estimate could be higher and the yield estimate smaller, but if that is the case they would offset one another.
“Our best guess is that it will be in the 150,000-175,000 tonne range.”
That represents about half the typical demand for top quality large green lentils. However, he cautioned growers that prices wouldn’t climb like they did in the 2002-03 crop year when supplies fell to just over 50,000 tonnes.
“Guys think prices are going to hit 30-35 cents…. I don’t think that’s going to happen,” said Souster.
He hasn’t analyzed the market for small greens, but said there will be quality problems with that type of lentil as well.
