In the sea of Conservative blue that now colours Saskatchewan, one Liberal red riding stands out.
Ralph Goodale has represented Wascana since 1993 and that’s not likely to change after the May 2 vote, said Ken Rasmussen, associate director of the Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy.
“I don’t necessarily think it’s a Liberal riding but I think it’s Ralph Goodale’s riding,” Rasmussen said of the electoral district that includes southeast Regina and the rural communities of Vibank, Odessa, Kendal, Montmartre, Francis, Sedley and Kronau, as well as Carry the Kettle First Nation.
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Goodale has enough personal credibility to win on the strength of his own brand, he said. In fact, the Liberal votes in Wascana are not related to the party, Rasmussen suggested, but to Goodale himself.
The incumbent MP downplays that
notion, saying it’s a combination of factors that has elected him to six consecutive terms.
He believes people admire him for his strong commitment to integrity, a solid record of fiscal responsibility while in government and speaking up for Saskatchewan.
“People are kind enough to say that the track record is a good one,” he said.
Goodale’s support peaked in 2004 when he entered the campaign as finance minister and took more than 57 percent of the popular vote. It dropped to 46 percent in 2008.
But he said the decline in voter turnout that election is an almost exact match.
“It’s not that Liberals voted some other way,” he explained. “They just in that campaign turned out in lower numbers.”
The Conservative candidate, Ian Shields, sees it differently.
“If you look at the last two elections, his vote has eroded five percent each time and our vote has gone up five percent each time, so now we are about 10 points apart,” he said. “That tells me it’s worth the fight.”
Shields comes to the candidacy after working as an organizer since 2000. He oversaw the 2006 Conservative campaign in Wascana and the 2008 campaign in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont.
Overcoming Goodale’s recognition factor is a challenge, Shields admits, but his reception on doorsteps has been positive.
“I am getting the impression that there are some people who are beginning to say it’s time for someone new,” he said.
Shields said many people – even some he has identified as core Liberals – say they are undecided. And, he said there are many Conservatives who in the past have voted for Goodale.
He noted that anyone who supports his party, including farmers, cannot stay home May 2.
“The Conservatives that I identify have to vote. They cannot simply throw up their hands and say it’s going to be the same again because it’s not.”
The Conservatives in 2008 earned 34.6 percent of the vote, followed by the NDP with 14.7 and the Green Party with 4.6.
The NDP candidate is Marc Spooner, associate professor of education at the University of Regina. Bill Clary, who ran provincially for the Green Party in 2007 and federally in 2008, is running again.
Rasmussen said while the Conservatives have been running second and gaining ground in Wascana, the only way Shields will win is if there is a rising tide of Conservative support.
But once Goodale retires, Rasmussen said that will likely be the end of the Liberal riding. Parts of the riding vote NDP provincially and the NDP traditionally runs second in Saskatchewan federal ridings.
Goodale said he hasn’t thought about stopping.
“I’ve never put a time limit on my interest in public affairs,” said the veteran of more than a dozen provincial and federal campaigns.
