A Calgary economist says Saskatchewan will lead the nation in economic growth this year.
Brett Gartner, senior economist with Canada West Foundation, said in a report released March 26 that every sector in Saskatchewan’s economy is firing.
He predicted real economic growth of 3.6 percent this year, led by mining, construction, retail sales and oil exploration and production.
However, Gartner also said normal growing conditions could see crop receipts increase 18 percent, on top of the 39 percent increase in 2007.
“From coffee row to corporate boardrooms, people across the province are exuding confidence,” said the report, which was released the same day the Canadian Federation of Independent Business released its quarterly business barometer.
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The CFIB, which counts 1,800 prairie agricultural businesses as members – 68 percent of whom are farmers – said Saskatchewan small business owners are among the most optimistic in the country, placing second behind Newfoundland and Labrador in a survey of 2,048 members conducted in early March.
Agricultural optimism wasn’t as bright. The federation said the index it uses to measure business mood has dropped for agriculture to mid-1990 levels, which it blamed on high fuel, feed and input costs facing the livestock sector.
Cattle producers were among the five least optimistic businesses listed in the report, the federation added.
Agricultural businesses topped the list of sectors desiring a lower Canadian dollar, with 74 percent saying they preferred that situation to today’s dollar parity.
Although exports have weakened and there will be effects from the declining U.S. economy, Gartner said Saskatchewan, more than any other province, is well positioned to ride out a storm because of its solid economic fundamentals.
The outward population migration that characterized the last 20 years has been reversed.
Saskatchewan lost 160,000 people to other provinces between 1984 and 2006, but in 2006-07 the migration stopped and Saskatchewan led the country in population growth between July and September. Many of the people who moved to the province had been living in Alberta.
Gartner said labour shortages are a concern despite the growing number of residents.
Enterprise and innovation minister Lyle Stewart said the province recognizes that a lack of labour, and skilled labour in particular, is a challenge.
“Our government was elected with a mandate to sustain the economic momentum and these two reports suggest that we are on the right track,” he said.
The RBC Financial Group’s provincial outlook released April 3 also predicted 3.6 percent economic growth in 2008 and 3.2 percent in 2009. It said Saskatchewan will lead in employment growth, personal disposable income growth, retail sales and new home construction.
