Meet the new boss | Not the same as the old boss
Alberta elected another majority Progressive Conservative government last month, but it isn’t more of the same, says political scientist Harold Jansen.
The new government of premier Alison Redford is more urban, more centre-right and more co-operative in its approach, Jansen told the Southern Alberta Council of Public Affairs May 10.
Much of rural Alberta, particularly in the south, has been represented by the PCs since 1975. Now it is largely represented by Wildrose Alliance candidates, which has implications for rural and agricultural issues, said Jansen.
“I think we’re going to see the representation perhaps raised more on the floor of the legislature because that’s the primary forum that opposition MLAs have to communicate,” he said in an interview.
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“In some ways, (agriculture) might receive more public attention than it has in the past, but the tradeoff is you don’t have the kind of inside influence that it had in the past.”
Jansen, who works at the University of Lethbridge, put the rural shift to Wildrose squarely on the shoulders of discontent over land use bills and worries about property rights.
“These issues resonated in a huge way in southern Alberta. I can’t think of any other explanation why the rural south voted the way it did.”
In his speech, Jansen said Conservative gains in Edmonton and Calgary came at the expense of the Liberal party. Redford’s promises to restore education funding and end poverty made it difficult for the Liberals to distinguish themselves from their PC rivals.
“Alison Redford campaigned like a small ‘l’ Conservative,” said Jansen. “What the Conservatives lost to the Wildrose, they gained from the Liberals.”
In rural areas, a scarcity of Liberals prevented the Conservatives from gaining support from that quarter, so the Wildrose took the lead.
Now that the government has moved toward the political centre — although Jansen admitted that might have a different meaning in conservative Alberta — it will be hard to hold that position.
Centrist parties can be squeezed from both directions and there are few successful long-term centrist parties.
Jansen said he disagreed with pundits who suggested the Wildrose Alliance would have a better relationship with the federal government of prime minister Stephen Harper.
“I actually think he’s very comfortable with Alison Redford because she’s someone he can work with. Premier Redford campaigned very much on a more co-operative kind of approach, and I expect to see that.”
He said the Conservatives stumbled early during the election campaign, giving an early lead to the Wildrose.
Public outrage over monthly payments to MLAs who were on a committee that hadn’t met in almost three years fueled the Wildrose platform of greater fiscal responsibility.
As well, he said the PCs hadn’t had to seriously campaign since 1993, when the Liberals under Lawrence Decore ran against Ralph Klein, who had replaced Don Getty as leader.
In subsequent elections, Klein was an indifferent campaigner and Ed Stelmach was also uncomfortable with it, said Jansen.
Numerous pre-election polls indicated the Wildrose would win, but instead it lost because of last minute doubters, a large number of undecided voters that eventually voted PC and worries about the province’s economic future.
