Crops are off to a bad start in much of the southern growing region of the Prairies.
South-central and southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba are in particularly bad shape.
“Chances are we are going to get below average yields in a portion of this region because they are so dry right now,” said Bruce Burnett, director of weather and crop surveillance with the Canadian Wheat Board.
The area is home to a lot of durum, wheat, peas, lentils and some barley that is all under threat from a combination of poor subsoil moisture, inadequate topsoil moisture and cool growing conditions.
Read Also
StatCan stands by its model-based crop forecast
Statistics Canada’s model-based production estimates are under scrutiny, but agency says it is confident in the results.
Some farms in southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba received about 13 millimetres of rain two weekends ago, which was enough to ensure proper crop establishment.
But other farms in those regions and in south-central Saskatchewan and areas of Manitoba east of Boissevain and Killarney that missed that precipitation are seeing crops with uneven stands and spotty germination, which has diminished yield potential.
Topsoil moisture is good in southwestern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta, but growers in those regions are not out of the woods yet due to inadequate subsoil moisture. A prolonged summer dry spell would restrict production from there as well.
In addition to the dry conditions, the entire prairie region has been cooler than normal, which is further hindering crop development. It is unusual to have that combination of conditions. Usually it is hot and dry or cool and wet, not cool and dry.
“That is exceptional,” said Burnett.
Terry Bedard, who prepares Saskatchewan Agriculture’s crop report, said 44 percent of her reporters classify their region as having adequate moisture, 43 percent say their area is short to the point where it could curtail crop development and 13 percent say it is very short with plants already showing moisture stress.
“The only area right now that is telling me there is more than 50 percent of the cropland in an adequate moisture situation is the northeast. Everybody else is less than 50 percent adequate.”
A Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration precipitation map that covers March 31 to May 29 shows that the eastern half of Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba’s grain growing region have either received less than 40 percent or 40 to 60 percent of normal rainfall.
Ryan Melsted farms near Wynyard, Sask., one of the regions on the map in the less than 40 percent category.
“For seeding we had really, really good conditions, a perfect amount of soil moisture. It’s disappearing now.”
Outside of the six mm of rain his farm received last week, there hasn’t been a drop of moisture this spring.
“The pastures are the biggest thing. They are really slow,” said Melsted.
“It’s not critical yet but another week or two it will be.”
Alberta is the exception to the rule. Most of the province is in the 85 to 150 percent of normal range on the PFRA precipitation map.
Harry Brook, crop specialist with Alberta Agriculture, said most of central and southern Alberta has enough moisture and as of June 2, more rain was being forecast for this week.
“By and large, everyone over the last few weeks has had at least an inch (25 mm) or more of rain and it couldn’t come at a much better time, just after most wheat and canola had been seeded.”
But he echoed Burnett’s concerns about the cool conditions delaying crop development. Farmers haven’t been doing much pre-seed burnoff because weeds haven’t been growing until just lately.
“Global warming has failed us once more. I’m starting to lose faith in that, I tell you,” said Brook.
In some pockets of the province, like the Rocky Mountain House and Drayton Valley areas, it has been too wet to get a crop in the ground.
“They are actually contemplating putting in something like winter wheat later on in the season,” he said.
Burnett said what is needed is a large, slow-moving system that delivers 25 to 50 mm of rain across the entire southern prairie region.
“That would certainly go a long way to improving things here. In the absence of that, there is reason for concern,” he said.
