Recent precipitation in September is expected to improve conditions for fall seeding of rapeseed, wheat and barley
PARIS, France (Reuters) — Widespread rain in September has helped European farmers carry out rapeseed seeding after a severe summer drought, while boosting soil conditions for upcoming wheat and barley planting.
Energy-related tensions in fertilizer supply were adding uncertainty about planting decisions, though growers were seen more likely to use fertilizer sparingly than shift away from core crops in rotation systems, analysts and traders said.
“The rain events are going to help sowing,” said Vincent Braak, crop analyst with Strategie Grains. “Beyond that, it will still take a few more months to replenish the moisture deficit.”
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European farms endured a historic drought this summer, exacerbated by heat waves, although winter crops like wheat and rapeseed were harvested before suffering severe damage seen in later-developing varieties like corn.
In France, showers have allayed fears of large losses in rapeseed.
Rain relief could keep the rapeseed area close to the three million acres harvested this year and above drought-reduced levels seen in the 2019-21 harvests, according to traders.
The late improvement in rapeseed conditions may limit room for extra winter barley and wheat, with fertilizer costs and volatile grain prices also making some growers cautious.
“Wheat is a pivotal crop for most farms but I’m not sure there will be a particularly big wheat area,” Braak said.
In Germany, analysts expect an increase of up to five percent in rapeseed plantings for the 2023 crop from 2.7 million acres harvested this summer, helped by rain in recent weeks.
Winter wheat sowings are now underway and are expected to be about the same as the 7.1million acres harvested this year.
Sowing adjustments due to fertilizer constraints were expected to be limited.
“We could see a slight move away from planting winter barley, which generally needs fertilizer in the autumn, towards grains which do not need so much fertilizer, such as rye and triticale,” a German analyst said.
Rye and triticale are also used in biogas production, attractive for farmers given high energy prices, the analyst added.
In Poland, the winter rapeseed and wheat area is expected to be stable, said Wojtek Sabaranski of analyst firm Sparks Polska.
Based on seed sales, Polish farmers are believed to have planted about 4.1 million acres of winter rapeseed against 2.6 million for the 2022 crop.
In Britain, the wheat area is expected to be little changed, supported by favourable field conditions, CRM Agri analyst Peter Collier said.
The rapeseed area had been expected to rise but dry conditions and problems with cabbage stem flea beetles had curbed potential, Collier added.
Britain’s wheat sowings last season reached 4.5 million acres and rapeseed 830,000 acres.
