2013 harvest off target CN says it was caught by surprise with 17 million more tonnes to move
Canadian National Railway is urging Canada’s grain production forecasting agencies to give it more and better information.
“Give us the signal,” CN executive vice-president and chief marketing officer Jean-Jacques Ruest told the Canadian Global Crops Symposium April 16.
“Give us the signal early.”
Ruest said CN relies on government bodies such as Agriculture Canada and Statistics Canada to give it the heads up on the size of both current and future crops.
He said the railroads’ flat-footedness in dealing with last year’s suddenly larger prairie crop was mostly due to the complete surprise everyone had with its true size, which was first predicted to be 60 million tonnes.
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Ruest said being 17 million tonnes off target left railways and transportation systems unprepared to handle much more than the 60 million tonnes or less that were produced in the years immediately preceding 2013.
“For us to size up those asset capacities and what we need to do, we need to get a signal from somewhere and we look by and large for the signal to come from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada,” said Ruest.
“When you miss it by that much, it’s very difficult to catch up.”
The massive size of last year’s crop was a shock to everyone in the prairie grain industry, with the first solid signs of a bigger-than-expected crop appearing in late August.
However, those signs were late coming because the prairie crop was generally delayed by the late spring and cool summer growing conditions.
Ruest said in an interview during the conference that CN is now attempting to assess whether last year’s incorrect estimate was just an aberration or the sign of things to come.
“Maybe what happened last winter was a one-time miss in the forecast,” said Ruest.
“In years past, (official forecasts have) been OK, (but) we are in a time when things are changing.”
Ruest said grain companies have offered to provide CN with their own private information to help it better assess the size of coming crops, but added they are restrained by commercial concerns with internal information.
He said CN relies heavily on Agriculture Canada and Statistics Canada.
“I’d like them to be as good as they can be,” said Ruest.
