The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization says price expectations for all pulses, except dry beans, are pointing up due to reduced supplies in key exporting countries.
That news reaffirms Jim Moen’s marketing plans.
“It’s certainly probably a good idea to hold onto some product in anticipation of better prices,” said the Cabri, Sask., farmer.
“If you need cash now you’d be tempted to sell now. But if you could wait for higher prices it would be a good idea,” said Moen, who also sits on the board of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers.
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As is often the case, what the farmer thinks doesn’t always mesh with a processor’s take on the situation.
“The market has slumped a little bit in the last month or so,” said Doug Dunnington of T. W. Commodities in Swift Current, Sask.
“I see it rebounding to the level it was at, but I can’t see it going any higher.”
Dunnington said people who eat Canadian pulses are poor and are already paying big premiums for a product that is in short supply.
“We are at levels higher than we’ve ever, ever been in lentils for instance.”
Moen agreed that lentil prices have been fantastic and he suspected farmers have already moved a lot of that crop. Field pea prices have been tempting as well.
But he harvested a small, good quality crop of kabuli chickpeas this year and he plans to hold onto those a little longer until he sees prices climb.
“It looks like there is upside potential there,” Moen said.
Not according to Dunnington.
“The movement of kabulis has been very pathetic. The demand has been fed by Turkey and other countries that are willing to sell at values less than we’re willing to sell at,” he said.
And while Agriculture Canada is forecasting a 156,000 tonne chickpea crop, which is 66 percent smaller than last year’s harvest, there is still ample carryout from the 2001-02 crop year.
“I don’t even need to buy any of this current crop to be able to supply what we normally would process in a year,” Dunnington said.
He has enough inventory and old crop offered by farmers to meet his needs. Besides, he said, new crop kabulis don’t meet international quality requirements.
“I’m really not interested in new crop kabulis because they’re only going to give me trouble.”
Moen remained confident pulse prices will climb higher in coming months, as stated in the FAO report.
The UN agency bases its claim on the expectation that world pulse production will fall dramatically in two key exporting regions: by 30 percent to 2.3 million tonnes in Canada, and by almost 50 percent to 1.3 million tonnes in Australia.
Australia’s lentil and fababean production could shrink by as much as 70 percent from 2001 levels, while dry pea output could decline by 60 percent.
Overall, production from developed countries is expected to drop by 16 percent, but that will be more than offset by a 12 percent jump in production from developing nations.
India, the world’s largest pulse producer, is forecast to harvest 14 million tonnes of pulses, up almost three million tonnes from last year’s drought-reduced total.
Improved weather conditions in Iran, Syria and Turkey are expected to boost chickpea and lentil output in those regions.
Dry bean production should grow by 25 percent in Brazil. Mexico is also expecting better bean crops because of timely rainfall.
Despite rising pulse production in Ethiopia, African production will remain unchanged from last year’s 8.4 million tonne crop.
This year’s world pulse harvest should come in around 54.4 million tonnes, which is two million tonnes higher than 2001.
