Climate change report | Researcher says farmers around the world will have to adapt to floods and droughts
Prairie farmers are the most adaptable people on Earth, says a Sask-atchewan climate researcher.
The latest report on global climate change suggests they should prepare for anything.
Dave Sauchyn of the University of Regina spent the past year reviewing the 2,500 page Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which was released last week.
He said on the face of it, farmers stand to gain from a warming climate, because longer growing seasons and greater heat units offer advantages.
“But it’s also advantageous for other living things, not just crops and pasture and grasses but things we don’t want in the pasture and the crops,” Sauchyn said.
Read Also
Short rapeseed crop may put China in a bind
Industry thinks China’s rapeseed crop is way smaller than the official government estimate. The country’s canola imports will also be down, so there will be a lot of unmet demand.
A greater diversity of pests and diseases associated with warmer climates are likely, including those that affected animal agriculture but in the past had been killed off in the cold winters.
Sauchyn said farmers are always adapting to climate and diseases, and that is likely to continue. Those who are more adaptable are also better prepared.
“Some of them are reading this stuff and some of them are saying, ‘OK, we’re adapting anyway, let’s make sure we can handle a flood or a drought or a storm that’s worse than what we’ve seen,’ ” he said.
“That’s the key — are you adapting to extremes that are beyond your personal experience. You don’t have to run a fancy computer model to know that you should be prepared for weather that you’ve not seen.”
The latest IPCC report reviewed the scientific research done in the last seven years since the previous report from Working Group II.
Working Group 1 had examined scientific aspects of climate change.
The review found that all continents are already experiencing the effects of climate change, and the world is mostly ill-prepared for the risks.
“It shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody because we’ve been studying this stuff for decades, and the outcome of the research isn’t that much different,” Sauchyn said.
“The body of evidence is just getting bigger and bigger and bigger.”
Thousands of independent studies have now reached the same conclusion, and while climate change can’t be blamed for all extreme weather events, enough data is available to say there is a trend to greater extremes in terms of floods, droughts and storms, he said.
Working Group II is expected to produce another report in seven years, but Sauchyn added the reports aren’t done for scientists who are constantly looking at the research.
“They’re done for decision makers, policy makers in industry, government,” he said.
“The next stage is communicating.”
The report doesn’t identify specific risks or impacts on the Prairies.
Instead, it takes a continental approach.
However, one of the consistent concerns is the impact of climate change on water.
“In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality,” said the report summary.
Terrestrial, fresh water and marine species have all altered their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns and other aspects of their lives in response to climate change.
The report also notes that many studies examining crops found more negative than positive impacts on yields.
“Climate change has negatively affected wheat and (corn) yields for many regions and in the global aggregate,” the report said.
“Effects on rice and soybean yield have been smaller in major production regions and globally. Observed impacts relate mainly to production aspects of food security rather than access or other components of food security.”
Extreme floods, drought, storms and increased frequency and intensity of wildfires were also noted.
Debra Davidson, an environmental sociologist at the University of Alberta, was one of two Canadians who helped write the report summary for decision makers.
She told the CBC Radio program Quirks and Quarks that governments have a role to play in helping people adapt.
“I’m confident in the ability of individual households and farmers and municipalities to recognize the seriousness and to do what they can to adapt to the current and the projected impacts of climate change,” she said during the April 5 broadcast.
“But in the end, we do need national level support and co-ordination of those efforts simply because the capacity to adapt is not equally distributed around the country.”
