Statistics Canada might not be calling 9,300 Canadian farmers next September to find out the size of their crops.
The federal agency hopes to replace its annual fall phone survey with a mathematical model that estimates production of principal field crops.
“The goal is to make the decision in December whether we use this approach for next year,” said Frederic Bedard, geomatics analyst with Statistics Canada.
The decision will be based on how closely the mathematical model reflects the numbers contained in the survey.
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“I was pretty pleased this year,” said Bedard.
“We’re still crunching numbers but we’ve done a few crops and so far I’m happy.”
The results will be forwarded later this fall to senior Statistics Canada managers, who will make the decision after consulting with a committee comprising officials from Agriculture Canada, the provinces and industry.
The model produces the estimates using historical crop survey yields, weather data from climate stations and data compiled from low resolution satellite images of vegetative growth.
However, it isn’t foolproof.
“Last year wasn’t as successful because of the record yields,” said Bedard.
It is hard to estimate production for a once-in-a-lifetime event with a model that uses historical yields, he said.
“We were something like 15 percent below, which is not that good. We’re more aiming for maybe five to 10 percent maximum deviation.”
Canada’s railways complained they were blindsided by the size of last year’s harvest and were unable to marshal the proper resources to handle the crop, so there may be some skepticism about a model that tends to underestimate big production years.
However, Bedard said the September production report isn’t the only estimate of the year. The July survey will remain intact, as will the one conducted in November.
The November survey is considered the most accurate estimate because it has the highest sample size and is conducted after harvest is complete.
“The industry will still have time to react,” said Bedard.
The big benefit of replacing the September survey with the mathematical model is there will be no need to bother 9,300 farmers during a busy time of the year.
There will also be considerable cost savings because there is a lot of work gathering, compiling and analyzing survey responses.
