Instead of longing for a temperature-boosting Chinook last week, Randy Lehr embraced the -47 C wind chill-assisted temperatures like a warm blanket.
“It is a winter type winter this year, which is always a little more comforting. At least that moisture that is in the ground this winter is staying there,” he said.
Lehr farms northeast of Medicine Hat, Alta., an area of the grain belt that was dry heading into winter and has received little precipitation since.
Trevor Hadwen, agricimate specialist with the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, said the fall and winter moisture maps his agency prepares paint an ugly picture for Lehr’s neck of the woods.
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“The central area of Alberta, from Medicine Hat straight up to Edmonton and beyond is at 40 to 60 percent of normal precipitation for that period.”
The situation is the same for southwestern Manitoba. Places like Melita, Gimli, Virden and Winnipeg are all below 50 percent of normal.
Much of the remainder of the grain producing regions of Alberta, Manitoba and southern Saskatchewan are in the 60 to 85 percent of normal category. Central Saskatchewan is the exception to the rule, with normal to above normal snow pack and moisture conditions for this time of year.
Hadwen said fall and winter moisture is important for cattle and grain producers, especially when coming off a dry summer in many regions.
“Unless you get those spring rains, which tend to be off-and-on and hit-and-miss, you could be in trouble.”
Larry Weber, market analyst with Weber Commodities Ltd., said soil moisture was on the minds of producers he met with during a recent speaking tour of six communities in west-central Saskatchewan.
“I asked the question almost everywhere that I went last week, ‘How far down is the subsoil moisture?’ Some guy said, ’24 feet,’ as a joke. But it’s not pretty out there,” he said.
Between moisture concerns, uncertainty surrounding barley marketing, La Nina and ever-changing markets, farmers are having a tough time deciding what to plant.
“This is probably the latest that you’re going to see seeding intentions nailed down,” Weber said.
Lehr said there’s enough water in the ground to get his winter wheat and fall-seeded grass crops started in the spring.
“Our biggest concern right now is runoff for stock watering. The hot, dry summer last year really sucked down a lot of the dugouts.”
There is little snow pack in his area and if there is a slow spring thaw, surface moisture will evaporate before it reaches the dugouts. That can hurt ranching operations like his because cattle won’t graze properly in the summer, sticking close to the limited water supplies.
But Lehr said it’s only January. A wet snow in March or an early spring rain can change things in a hurry.
“We’re not losing any sleep over it yet but it is definitely something to keep in the back of your mind,” he said.
Lynn Jacobson, a producer from Enchant, Alta., said producers in his area are more interested in monitoring markets than moisture right now. Many farmers have already made up their minds what they will be growing, especially those with irrigation equipment.
“As far as I know, nobody has changed any seeding intentions or anything,” Jacobson said.
Like Lehr, he isn’t overly concerned about the lack of subsoil moisture.
“We can’t have a drought in January. We’re still hoping for decent spring runoff or spring rains,” said Jacobson.
Hadwen said most winter precipitation happens in January and February, so there is still plenty of time for a full recovery.
But if little changes over the coming months, spring rains will be percolating down through parched soil in some regions of the country where moisture levels weren’t recharged last summer.
“Then I think you’ll see a number of farmers starting to get a little concerned,” he said.
