Trish Jordan’s crystal ball must be well polished.
Back in May, the Monsanto Canada spokesperson warned growers they could face a glyphosate shortage come fall and an accompanying rise in prices for the crop input.
That prediction has come true.
Some products are hard to find and mid- and low-tier glyphosate prices cost about 12 percent more on average from a year ago, said Jordan.
Darren Yungmann, a farmer from St. Gregor, Sask., has experienced the price hike, but in his case it was a 22 percent increase between spring and fall. The Factor 540 glyphosate he purchased in August was $5.60 per litre, up $1 from the spring price.
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Yungmann plans to spray 2,000 to 2,500 acres this fall, which means his input costs just went up $2,000 to $2,500. And he considers himself lucky because he was able to find enough of the cheap glyphosate to meet his needs.
Many of his neighbours won’t be so lucky. All of the retailers he spoke to in his area were running out of the less expensive glyphosate, although they seemed to have plenty of the expensive stuff on their shelves.
He spoke to some retailers who complained they were only able to get one-third of the lower tier glyphosate they had requested from manufacturers.
“In my opinion, glyphosate should be like bread. When I want to go spray glyphosate, I should be able to go to the store and buy it,” said Yungmann.
He said the shortage is universal, regardless of whether the product comes from Monsanto, Syngenta or Dow AgroSciences. And that makes him suspicious.
“Maybe I’m reading (too much) into it and calling it collusion when it’s not, but it just seems to me that they are playing with the market, trying to drive the price up.”
Jordan said that is not true. The spring supply of lower value or generic glyphosate was higher than in 2006, but there has been a run on those products.
Addressing the supply shortfall isn’t as easy. Monsanto’s production facilities, which crank out more glyphosate than any other supplier in the world, have been working at full capacity.
“You can’t just create more product. It’s not like you can go and build a plant in a short period of time,” said Jordan.
Suppliers were caught off guard this spring by unexpectedly high demand from South America, where more acres were put into production, and by the 15 million extra acres of corn in the United States.
The situation wasn’t helped by generic glyphosate manufacturers in China failing to live up to output expectations.
But Jordan assured Yungmann there is no concerted effort to short the market of lower tier glyphosate to sell more expensive product.
“We can’t just go to a retailer and say, ‘I’m sorry, all you’re getting is Roundup Weathermax,’ because they wouldn’t stand for that,” she said.
Jordan’s crystal ball tells her growers are in for more of the same come spring.
“The likelihood of prices going down in the foreseeable future is probably pretty much zero,” she said.
Supplies are still tight and depending on demand, there could be further price hikes, which is already happening in the U.S.
Jordan said it is “highly advisable” for producers to book supplies for glyphosate or seed as early as possible.
“Planning needs to back up (in the season) in order to ensure folks aren’t disappointed.”
