Lloyd Affleck can’t help but think about the shrinking window of frost-free days when he sees his lentils flowering when they should be podding.
The first fall frost usually arrives early on his farm near Beechy, Sask., a nagging concern considering this year’s tardy crop.
“The fifth of September is the average (first frost) and we’re going to probably need to the 20th,” he said.
Growers across the prairie region are nervous about their crops. Seeding delays and a cool spring have pushed back development in all three prairie provinces, exposing the crops to a higher-than-usual risk of fall frost damage.
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Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc., said it is difficult to predict what kind of fall is in store for western Canadian farmers.
The key to his frost forecast is where a ridge of high pressure sets up.
“Where it develops and hangs out will have a tremendous influence on where it’s going to get cold quickest,” he said.
While there is no solid signal, his best guess is that the ridge will reside in the United States plains and extend into Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan.
If that is the case, Alberta and western Saskatchewan would be the likely candidates for early-season coolness because cool air can pile up on the backside of the ridge.
“It wouldn’t be extremely early,” said Lerner.
“I think it would be something that would be a week or so early maybe.”
If the ridge sets up farther west over the Rocky Mountains, no area on the Prairies would be at risk for an early season freeze. If it sets up farther east, a larger portion of the Prairies would be at risk, although he is fairly confident there is not much of a threat for Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan.
If his most likely scenario unfolds, it could prove devastating for Alberta’s farmers, depending on the severity of the frost. Crops in that province are 10 to 20 days behind in the south and seven to 10 days behind in the rest of the province.
Harry Brook, crop specialist with Alberta Agriculture, said there is a risk for substantial frost damage but there was last year too until a September heat wave saved the crops.
“I think someone in the business of miracles pulled that one off,” he said.
The first fall frost usually arrives in late August or the first week of September in northern Alberta, the first to second week of September in central Alberta and the last two weeks of the month in the south. But Brook doesn’t put much faith in those dates.
“Frankly, I really don’t know about the long-term trends. I think you can almost throw them out the window because we’re getting such highly variable weather now from year to year,” he said.
Brook said under the worst circumstances there could be massive downgrading of crops if the frost was early and widespread.
A severe Aug. 20, 2004, frost caused the downgrading of about one-third of that year’s canola crop. The discount on that 2.9 million tonnes of canola would have cost growers an estimated $49 million that year.
The concern this year is twofold – the potential for an early frost and the certainty of a late crop.
Lerner said crops south of a line between Hanna, Alta., and Kindersley, Sask., down to the U.S. border are a week to 10 days behind normal development in terms of the heat units they have received. That measure doesn’t account for how late they were seeded.
The remainder of the Prairies has had normal degree-day accumulations of heat units but in some of those regions such as northeast Saskatchewan the crops are way behind due to extreme seeding delays.
Grant McLean, cropping management specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture, said crops are one to two weeks behind normal in his province. But they could catch up fast if there is a prolonged stretch of hot weather.
The root system isn’t as extensive as it usually is due to the excess spring moisture. That should allow crops to mature more rapidly.
McLean said an early frost in western Saskatchewan would be a double whammy because that’s where the best crops are this year.
The worst case scenario would be a hot day followed by a cool evening where temperatures dip down to -4 C or -5 C for a couple of hours.
Brian Hunt, who compiled the crop reports for Manitoba Agriculture this week, said some areas of the province are a week behind, while others are two full weeks delayed.
“If we get a September like we did last year, everything will be wonderful,” he said.
But an early frost could cause significant damage to yields and quality. Hunt isn’t as concerned about wheat, barley, oats and canola as he is about the heat-loving plants like corn, soybeans and U.S. bean varieties.
