North America is due for a widespread corn belt drought, most weather experts say.
But are we going to get one this year?
Don’t bet on it, says Canadian Wheat Board weather analyst Bruce Burnett.
But don’t bet against it either.
“We will have a major drought in part of the corn belt (of the United States) eventually, because statistically that’s going to happen,” said Burnett in an interview.
“Does it mean that we’re going to have it this year? No, it doesn’t.”
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A U.S. corn belt drought would be a big deal for prairie farmers regardless of whether the dryness crawled north of the border. A widespread corn belt drought would almost certainly ignite a rally in all crop prices because Midwest corn forms the basis of North American crop markets and has a major influence on world prices.
The likelihood of a major drought has been discussed, with stocks-to-use ratios of some crops getting tight and the 2007-08 crop price rally making many foresee an explosive situation if anything causes North American production to fall short.
Burnett said there has been a very loose pattern of droughts hitting the U.S. corn belt every 17 years or so. The last major one was in 1988.
That means a loose bet on a drought is reasonable.
“The probability is that we will have (a major drought in the next five years) because we haven’t had one for a long time,” said Burnett.
“But I’ve been waiting for the 1988 comparable drought (for many years and it hasn’t yet occurred).”
Weather forecasting is a notoriously unreliable science.
For the next couple of months, the effect of the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will encourage increased early summer rainfall in the upper Midwest, according to U.S. forecaster StormX.
At the same time, the company’s forecasters are grappling with the likely impact of century-low sunspot activity.
And dozens of other effects, oscillators and random events like volcano eruptions are part of the elaborate equation.
Burnett said there are no major signs of an incipient drought in the corn belt. Usually it begins in the U.S. southern plains and migrates north and east.
“I don’t think there are any actual indications that we are going into a drought,” said Burnett.
