REGINA — The most recent Canadian Food Sentiment Index from the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University shows food inflation and food insecurity are both up compared to last year.
It found most Canadians, 51.9 per cent, are always or often choosing local food, which is way up over the 33.5 per cent who said the same a year ago. Trust in farmers remains generally strong, but trust has weakened across the overall food system.
The index is calculated every six months from 3,000 responses to the same questions so that the data is consistent.
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Why it Matters: Escalating food prices have been a concern for Canadians for the last several years as widespread inflation took hold.
According to the fall 2025 report, food spending at retail is up year over year by 1.1 per cent to $316.80 per month. Food service spending is also up to $204.60 per month, which is a 5.9 per cent increase over 2024.
About 80 per cent of respondents said food costs increased the most in the last year compared to other household expenses.
The survey found most consumers believe food inflation is slower but still persistent, and Canadians expect food prices to continue rising over the next year.
“Fewer anticipate extreme increases compared to spring 2025,” said the report.
Earlier this year, about 28.5 per cent expected prices to rise more than 10 per cent.
“Most now foresee moderate inflation between two and seven per cent, signalling cautious optimism that food costs may stabilize somewhat in 2026,” the report said.
Newfoundlanders expressed the most concern — 37 per cent of them said prices would rise more than 10 per cent. They are followed by people in Prince Edward Island, at 26.6 per cent, Saskatchewan, at 26.8 per cent, and Alberta, 23.8 per cent.
Manitobans are among the least concerned at 16.5 per cent.
As a result of inflation, respondents said they continue to seek sales and discounts, use coupons and take other measures to find lower prices.
About 20 per cent reported spending more than $600 per month on groceries, while most continue to spend $300 to $500.
Average household spending on food, including groceries and meals away from home, went up slightly since the spring from $497 to $515 per month.
The report also includes new research from the Proof Research program at the University of Toronto, which notes a third consecutive increase in food insecurity concerns. It sits at 25.5 per cent, up 2.6 per cent from 2024 and a record high.
“Concerns over nutritional security and strains on food banks persist, keeping Canadians in a very tough spot,” the report said.
The number of Canadians who needed to use savings or borrow to buy food decreased, except in New Brunswick, but remains “alarmingly high,” the report said.
The Prairie provinces report the highest levels of financial strain, with more than a third of respondents saying they had to withdraw from savings or borrow in the last year to purchase food.
When asked about food values, affordability remained at the top, followed by nutrition and taste. The preference for local food has moved more into the “often” category from sometimes, suggesting occasional buyers have become more regular purchasers of local products, the report said.
Other findings included a sharp increase in choosing generic or store brands, growing efforts to reduce food waste, and more people checking for GMOs.
Omnivorous diets remain the most popular at 60.7 per cent, while vegetarian diets remained at 4.2 per cent and flexitarian diets held at 6.8 per cent, compared to the spring 2025 report.
However, year-over-year saw bigger changes, when 67.6 per cent reported no restrictions and 7.7 per cent said they were vegetarians. A year ago only 4.6 per cent reported being flexitarian.
“Interesting findings help explain the decline of the omnivorous diet: among respondents in fall 2025 who reported dipping into their savings to pay for food, 50.8 per cent follow an omnivorous diet,” the report said.
“This proportion rises to 54.7 per cent among (those) with an annual income below $75,000.”
Interest in following paleo diets continues to increase, going from 4.3 per cent a year ago to six per cent in spring and 7.6 per cent this fall.
Veganism held at 2.2 per cent, as did pescatarianism at 2.6 per cent. Keto responses dropped from 3.8 to 3.3 per cent.
Consumers remain overwhelmingly in favour of eliminating retail taxes on food.
Beliefs that organic food is more nutritious, gluten-free food is healthier and plant-based milk is healthier than dairy all softened year over year. The report said that suggests growing consumer skepticism or a shift to evidence-based views on claims.
Finally, the survey found farmers remain the most trusted among the food system players, although responses were slightly lower than both the spring and 2024 surveys. Major grocers continue to be the least trusted.
The survey was conducted on Oct. 9 through an online panel.
