A rising global population, changing weather patterns and dwindling supplies of cultivated land will require farmers and researchers to find new ways to feed the planet.
Academics attending a three-day conference in Saskatoon said agricultural practices must change, management of land resources must improve and productivity must increase if the world hopes to sustain the estimated nine billion people that could inhabit the Earth by 2050.
Demographers say the world’s population, which already exceeds seven billion, is expected to increase by nearly 30 percent within the next 40 years based on current growth rates.
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If that happens, the demand for food will rise significantly and the pressure to produce more from every acre will increase.
A rapidly growing population isn’t the only challenge facing growers and researchers, said Agriculture Canada wheat breeder Ron DePauw, who spoke at the conference July 17.
Producers will be required to adapt to new environmental conditions, including warmer temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and earlier growing seasons.
Living standards in many of the world’s most populous nations, including China and India, are also increasing and urban sprawl continues to consume some of the world’s most productive farmland, he said.
By some estimates, the amount of cultivated land per capita worldwide will fall to less than 0.4 acres per person by 2050. That compares with roughly 1.1 acres per capita in the mid-1960s.
“Where are we (building)? Where is our urban sprawl? Is it on our poorest land?” said DePauw.
“No. We are some dumb critters.”
Pressures to produce more food and use land more wisely were two of the main themes during an opening plenary session at the Saskatoon event.
The conference was held at the University of Saskatchewan and hosted jointly by the Canadian Society of Agronomy, the Canadian Society for Horticultural Science, Certified Crop Advisors, the Agricultural Institute of Canada and the North American Fruit Explorers.
DePauw said renewed investment in research is key to supporting the growing population.
“Today, we are reaping the unfortunate consequences of (our earlier decisions),” said DePauw, referring to the reduced emphasis on agricultural research.
“When you look at things from a global basis, there’s over one billion people that suffer from hunger. Our millennium development goal was to reduce that, to cut it in half. Well, instead of cutting it in half, we’ve actually, since then, seen another 200 to 300 million people in a food deficit situation.”
On the positive side of the ledger, increased demand for food is likely to result in higher commodity prices.
At the same time, however, it is believed climatic changes will require radical changes in plant phenology.
Climate change models suggest that average daily temperatures throughout the year will increase over the next few decades at Swift Current, Sask., Saskatoon and Melfort, Sask.
At the same time, average monthly precipitation in June and July, which are critical periods for prairie crop development, is likely to decrease.
That means wheat growers will likely be seeding earlier in the year and growing crops that mature earlier and are more tolerant to abiotic stresses such as drought and heat.
As climates change, new cereal diseases and new pests will also present challenges for producers and plant breeders, DePauw said.
