The Scandinavian oat crop will be small this year, so it is unlikely any will be shipped to North America. That’s good news for Canadian growers.
“There’s going to be more demand in Europe for oats,” said oat market analyst Randy Strychar, outlining the factors that will probably keep the American horse feed oats market in Canadian hands.
“And we’re not sure what quality (of Swedish oats) is going to look like.”
The poor Scandinavian crops, caused by dry weather in July and August and wet harvest weather, will be mostly used up within the European Union, following bad crops in Poland and Germany, said Strychar.
Read Also
Government, industry seek canola tariff resolution
Governments and industry continue to discuss how best to deal with Chinese tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, particularly canola.
Probably only 100,000 to 150,000 tonnes of Scandinavian oats will be exported to the U.S. southeast this year, which is far below the long-term average of 450,000 tonnes.
Last year the total was only 85,000 tonnes.
Strychar said he is urging growers to sell only what they are forced to now. If farmers wait a few months, oat prices will probably improve.
Right now seasonal factors have market prices near their lows and there’s room for a general advance of trend- setting corn prices.
But Strychar said farmers shouldn’t assume that short oat supplies will mean that oat prices can be pushed much higher right now. Horse owners in the U.S. southeast have other feed grains they can switch to if oats get too high.
“We are so high priced compared to other feed grains and pelletized feed that the demand will be limited,” said Strychar.
“You’ll find demand down there, but you can’t push it.”
Farmers need to wait for the feed grain complex to begin moving higher before they will see prices for oats rise.
Strychar is estimating delivered prairie prices this coming year to be $1.90 to $2.35 per bushel at Portage la Prairie, $1.75 to $2.30 in Yorkton, and $1.50 to $2.10 in north-central Alberta.
“It’s a similar price range to last year,” said Strychar.
