Average yield still possible | Disease, sprouting, bleaching issues cause downgrades
Western Canadian farmers who took off a record-sized, high quality crop in 2013 will likely be harvesting an average sized crop this year with below average quality, industry observers acknowledged last week.
As of late last week, about 15 percent of Western Canada’s 2014 crop had been harvested but already there are worrisome signals that the quality will be much lower than expected.
In many parts of the West, especially in southern and eastern Saskatchewan and southern and western Manitoba, untimely rains, disease, sprouting and lodging have dampened harvest expectations.
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The threat of frost damage is also weighing heavily on farmer’s minds, especially in areas where crop staging is well behind normal.
Snow fell in parts of Alberta Sept. 8. Accumulations of five to 10 centimetres were expected in some areas, enough to delay an already late harvest for a few more days.
“It’s very early on … so hopefully it’s going to change but what we’ve heard and seen so far is that rain has caused mildew in … wheat crops and grades are going as low as No. 3 and feed,” said Daryl Beswitherick, program manager of quality assurance with the Canadian Grain Commission.
He said they are also seeing some sprouting.
Fusarium damage is a major degrading factor in winter wheat samples from southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, he added.
Some winter wheat growers may have trouble finding a market for their grain unless fusarium damaged kernels can be cleaned out and de-oxynivalenol or DON can be reduced to levels tolerated by the commercial grain and feed industries.
“The red winter wheat crop was really bad with fusarium this year,” Beswitherick said.
Based on early samples, “most of the crop is feed or sample on account of fusarium damage.”
Commercial tolerances for fusarium damaged kernels in red winter wheat are 0.8 percent in No. 1, one percent in No. 2, 1.5 percent in No. 3 and four percent in feed.
Based on anecdotal reports and early samples submitted to the CGC’s harvest sample program, fusarium damaged kernels in red winter wheat are well above those thresholds.
Samples that contain greater than four percent fusarium damaged kernels are usually blended and sold into low-value feed markets. Failing that, they are often dumped in the back 40.
In spring wheat, fusarium damaged kernels do not appear to be as great a concern, Beswitherick said. But grade losses caused by mildew could be significant.
“There are still some 2s out there but there seems to be more and more that we’ve seen in the 3 and feed range.”
Sprouting is also evident in early-submitted lentil and canola samples and bleaching is expected to be common in pulses and cereals.
One of the few bright spots this year, at least in terms of quality, is the Peace River region of northern Alberta and British Columbia.
Crop quality was expected to be average or better than average, although yields in most areas were trimmed by early season dry weather. Frost and snow was expected in the region early this week.
Saskatchewan Agriculture crop management specialist Shannon Friesen said the harvest is not off to a great start in her province.
“A couple of weeks ago, things were looking pretty good and there was lots of optimism out there, it seemed,” Friesen said.
“Since then, of course, we’ve got (a couple of weeks) of rain and heavy winds so we’ve had a lot of lodging and certainly the quality has deteriorated on a lot of the swathed crops and on some of the standing crops as well.”
According to Friesen, regional crop reporters have identified sprouting and bleaching in cereals and pulses and yield losses caused by lodging and disease.
“Overall, from what’s come off so far, some of it is good but the majority of it will likely be downgraded at the elevator,” Friesen said.
Yield expectations are also being adjusted downward, she said.
“Even from our earlier numbers, yields were looking to be about average but since the rains, things have dipped a bit ….”
Generally, a harvest season that drags on into late September or early October produces lower quality crops with greater yield losses.
Hot, dry weather for the rest of September would help reduce grade and yield losses, Friesen said.
At CWB, weather and crops specialist Bruce Burnett said quality concerns are common in many crops.
Winter wheat was badly affected by fusarium as was durum in eastern growing regions.
It remains to be seen how badly fusarium will affect spring wheat crops in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, he said.
Sprouting is more prevalent and is already evident in malting barley, spring wheat, durum and pulse crops, especially in areas that received repeated rainfall during the latter half of August and early September.
“I think we’d be very fortunate at this point, if we wind up with an average quality crop, given the conditions that we’ve seen to date and the current weather forecast,” said Burnett.
“For some crops like winter wheat and durum and some of the specialty crops, I think it’s an impossibility now.”
Late seeded crops that are still maturing will have a chance of making the highest grades but only if they can escape frost over few next weeks.
