BEIJING, China (Reuters) — China imported the most soybeans on record in 2024 as buyers concerned about rising U.S.-China trade tensions rushed to secure U.S. supplies ahead of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.
The world’s biggest buyer of the oilseed imported 105.03 million tonnes of soybeans in 2024, a 6.5 per cent increase from a year ago, according to customs data released Jan. 13.
Record annual import volumes were driven by declining Chicago Board of Trade soybean prices in 2024, strong crushing margins and buyers’ preparations due to trade war concerns, said Rosa Wang, analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI.
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For December, arrivals dropped 19.1 per cent to 7.94 million tonnes from the same month a year earlier, according to Reuters calculations of customs data.
That was less than analyst estimates of about 8.2 million tonnes and marked the smallest amount in four years.
“This could be due to the speed of customs clearance,” Wang said.
In the final months of 2024, Chinese buyers imported larger-than-usual shipments of U.S. beans despite cheaper Brazilian alternatives to hedge against a potential trade war between Beijing and Washington under a Trump presidency.
Trump, who takes office Jan. 20, has pledged tariffs of as much as 60 per cent on Chinese goods, duties that analysts say would disrupt international trade and raise costs, and could prompt retaliation.
While it is unclear how China will respond to tariffs under the new U.S. administration, traders in China said they have prepared by diversifying suppliers as well as boosting stocks.
Even without a trade war, ample supply and weak crush margins are expected to dampen future import demand for U.S.soybeans, BMI Research said in a note.
“Although a Trump presidency could reignite U.S.-Mainland China trade tensions and potential Chinese tariffs on U.S soybean exports, we anticipate that the expected decline in Chinese demand will mitigate price impacts,” BMI Research said.
Crush margins in China’s main processing hub at Rizhao have been negative since November, and were last at a loss of US$30.69 per tonne of soybean processed.
