WINNIPEG – China leads the world in exports of steel, battery-powered cars, cell phones, rare earth minerals and many, many other products.
China’s next target for global dominance? French fries.
In the last several years, frozen french fries produced in China have grabbed market share in countries like Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan. That’s putting pressure on North American exports of french fries, which are struggling to compete with cheaper fries from China.
Read Also
Rich life took him from sky to ground
World War II veteran Burns Wood shares some memories of his time on the Alberta Sugar Beet Growers board as the organization celebrates its 100th anniversary in 2025.
“There is a lot happening in the (potato) processing sector, globally. China and India really buying up market share in the East,” said Victoria Stamper, general manager for the United Potato Growers of Canada.
In late April, DCA Market Intelligence released a report on the rapid rise of China as a “Frozen Fries Giant.”
The report explains that fast food chains like KFC and McDonald’s continue to expand in China — thus creating more demand for fries.
As recently as 2019, China relied on imports of frozen french fries to supply that demand, but as of 2022 it became a net exporter of fries.
“Major investments are at the heart of China’s potato processing boom,” reported Potato News Today, citing the DCA report. “In Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia — dubbed China’s ‘Potato Capital’ — Lamb Weston inaugurated a state-of-the-art processing facility in November 2023.”
China is now producing enough frozen french fries to supply the domestic market and export product to nearby countries, including Japan.
“Japan traditionally was a stronghold for U.S.-produced fries, but this is no longer the case,” DCA said. “The list of countries (China) exports continues to increase, with ample supplies available to feed the demand.”
China grabbing market share in east Asia has altered the flow of trade for french fries and could be affecting potato production in North America.
Canada is a major exporter of frozen potato products, with $2.7 billion in exports in the 2023-24 crop year.
Most of the exports went to the United States. The Canadian supply allows the U.S. to export french fries to countries like Japan. But if Japan isn’t buying, that reduces American exports and cuts demand for Canadian french fries to “back fill” the U.S. market.
Stamper noticed that China was becoming a bigger player in frozen potato products about three years ago.
“My experience with them (China)… is when they set their sights on something… it’s government supported and it’s very organized,” she said.
“And it’s very incremental growth. So, you don’t really pay attention. Then all of a sudden, you turn around and they’re a fierce competitor. That’s exactly what’s happening.”
Potato acreage down in Canada
The final numbers aren’t in yet, but Stamper estimated that national potato acres will decline 1.5-2.0 per cent in 2025 compared to last year.
National acres were around 391,000 in 2024, says Statistics Canada.
Most of the acreage declines for 2025 are in Manitoba and New Brunswick, where companies that make french fries reduced the volume of their production contracts.
American potato acres have also declined.
“The latest I saw out of the U.S. is the potential of 3.5 per cent down,” Stamper said.
The processors didn’t really explain why they need less potatoes in Manitoba and New Brunswick, she added.
However, the threat of U.S. tariffs could be a factor.
There are no tariffs on Canadian french fries exported to the U.S., for now, but the risk of tariffs did create a massive amount of uncertainty this spring.
French fry manufacturers in Alberta also reduced their production volumes, but provincial acreage will likely climb in 2025.
“Even with the cut in acres from two of our processors, the increase in (potato) chip acres, fresh growth… as well as the new McCain plant (in Coaldale) coming online will end up adding to our overall total for 2025,” wrote Terence Hochstein, Potato Growers of Alberta executive director in a May-June newsletter.
