The United Nations is forecasting a record world pulse harvest in 2004, up 5.1 million tonnes from last year.
In its first pulse outlook of the year, the agency’s Food and Agriculture Organization predicted 60.3 million tonnes of production, up six percent from the 55.2 million tonnes harvested in 2003.
The June report contained a mix of good and bad news for Canadian pulse producers.
“Dry bean prices are likely to strengthen in the second half of 2004 on account of smaller production prospects in the United States and Canada combined with overall stock levels. By contrast, dry pea prices could come under downward pressure, reflecting larger supplies in several major exporting countries.”
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It said larger export supplies will weaken lentil prices in the next few months but chickpeas should be on the rise, reflecting a tightening of supply and a shift from desi to the more expensive kabuli type of production.
Saskatchewan Pulse Growers executive director Garth Patterson said if world pulse supply rises the 5.1 million tonnes predicted by the FAO, it could hurt prices.
“I guess growers need to be aware that if domestic supply (in other countries) is good, then without new uses there is potentially less demand for our product.”
Rob Tisdale, manager of Agricore United’s pulse crop division, was hard pressed to find fault with the report’s assertions.
“I would be in agreement with almost everything it says.”
He said any producer who is successful growing beans or kabuli chickpeas this year will likely be marketing their product at attractive prices.
The only sentence in the report he disputed was one stating that despite a 30 percent boost in local production, India is forecast to maintain its purchases at last year’s levels of 1.8 million tonnes, as rising disposable income spurs pulse demand.
Tisdale contends rising income would divert purchases away from crops like peas into various meat protein alternatives.
But he suggested Canadian farmers have more to learn about pea markets by looking in their own back yard. The crop is making inroads in western Canadian hog rations, with estimates of 400,000-600,000 tonnes of peas used for that purpose in 2003.
Greg Cherewyk, director of programs with Pulse Canada, is skeptical about the FAO’s latest world production forecast. He recently returned from the International Pulse Trade and Industry Confederation convention in China where what he heard didn’t jibe with the report.
In particular, he disagreed that Asian pulse production is set to expand to 29 million tonnes from 25.2 million tonnes in 2003, accounting for three-quarters of the increase in world production.
The report stated that normal monsoon rains and a rise in government support will stimulate a 30 percent increase in Indian pulse production to 15 million tonnes, while China’s production will “surge” to six million tonnes due to an expansion in plantings.
On a tour of China’s major bean growing regions Cherewyk learned that acreage of the country’s largest pulse export crop was down anywhere 10-40 percent in favour of soybeans.
“I would definitely suggest that there’s something off with the (FAO’s) Chinese statistics.”
Something seems amiss with India’s production estimates as well. Cherewyk spoke to a number of Indian pulse importers at the convention. They are forecasting an average crop of 12 million tonnes.
Patterson also found fault with some of the Indian analysis contained within the FAO report because it failed to mention the country’s new fumigation requirements, which could dramatically curtail imports from North America.
Patterson had a more uplifting report about Canadian production, because most pulses are off to a good start.
“Certainly we’ve had great weather here for establishment. Pea crops tend to be made in June with June moisture, so this could bode very well for peas.”
One trader told him 70 percent of the lentil crop looks fantastic, while the remainder is experiencing problems with excess moisture. Both Patterson and Tisdale raised concerns about potential disease problems in lentils and chickpeas due to the plentiful spring rains.
Dry beans are the only bad news. Patterson has heard reports that only three-quarters of intended acres were seeded in southern Manitoba. Tisdale said as much as 10 percent of what went in the ground has been rained out.
