While Canadian bean growers and a number of industry analysts were
taken aback by Statistics Canada’s 2002 acreage estimates, they were
downright confused by the 2001 numbers.
The federal agency reported that growers seeded 442,800 acres in 2001.
A few months earlier it had pegged that same crop at 386,000 acres.
Growers are complaining that the sudden change in the 2001 data is
skewing 2002 acreage estimates higher than they should be, which is
having a dampening effect on prices.
Statistics Canada crop analyst Dave Roeske said the agency changed the
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2001 numbers to reflect census data released in May.
He said the census numbers are more complete than the survey data on
which the March report was based. But many people in the bean industry
feel the first set of numbers was more accurate.
Dan Penner, president of the Manitoba Pulse Growers Association, said
the June report is “adversely affecting” new-crop prices because the
acreage estimate is too high.
Statistics Canada forecasts a Canadian crop of 557,000 acres, up 26
percent from last year. Agriculture Canada said at those levels, bean
prices will drop an average of 20 percent over all classes and grades.
Penner isn’t the only one who believes the federal agency erred.
Manitoba Crop Insurance Corp. is forecasting a 2002 provincial bean
crop of 270,000 to 280,000 acres, compared to Statistics Canada’s
estimate of 315,000 acres.
Agricore United bean and special crops manager Blair Roth agrees
Statistics Canada’s numbers “do seem to be a little on the high side.”
There is another factor driving the recent slide in bean prices – a
recent report from the United States Department of Agriculture
identifying a 30 percent increase in bean acreage in that country.
“You saw very high values this last crop year, which has encouraged
people back into bean production,” Roth said.
The most surprising increase is in North Dakota, where growers seeded
an estimated 750,000 acres of beans, up from 440,000 acres in 2001.
Some analysts doubt that number, but Blair said it has been that high
before.
If the American acreage reports are accurate, growers on both sides of
the border could be harvesting the largest North American bean crop in
recorded history.
Blair said that could put serious pressure on navy bean prices because
there is talk of a substantial carryout in that class.
“You don’t have the carryout issue in most of the coloured beans.”
Manitoba Agriculture pulse specialist Bruce Brolley said his contacts
say the low carryout extends through all classes of beans, including
navy beans.
Whatever the actual carryout levels are, everybody agrees prices for
most classes of beans will soften significantly if farmers harvest a
good crop in the primary growing regions of Canada and the U.S.
But nobody is talking about prices as bad as they were in 2000, when
significant carryover, large seeded acreage and good yields combined to
drive prices to a 10-year low.
Besides, Penner said, the crop is a long way from the bin. He has heard
reports of up to 20 percent crop loss in Manitoba and North Dakota as a
result of excessive rain.
“I’m confident that, with the weather problems that certain regions
have been having, that we could see some surprisingly good prices.”
Brolley said the crop loss number in Manitoba is more like eight to 10
percent and the crop that survived looks above average.
“We’ve got some nice looking bean fields.”
