Fewer U.S. high school graduates over the next decade could mean a drop in the number of students entering the field
WINNIPEG — Agricultural economists are in danger of becoming an endangered species if the academy and the profession don’t find ways of attracting future students to the field.
That’s the conclusion and the alarm sounded by a paper in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, highlighting the “looming demographic cliff” as well as other factors threatening to strangle the future flow of students in the United States.
“Given the predicted drop in high school graduates, it is imperative for many agricultural economics departments to adapt to the changing landscape to ensure their sustainability and relevance,” says the paper by Rodolfo Nayga, Jr. of Texas A & M University and Jianhui Liu and Bachir Kassas of the University of Florida.
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The researchers say ag economics departments could be severely compromised by the predicted slump in high school graduates after 2025, which will continue to about 2037. Declining birth rates in recent decades are hitting the school age population. That shrinks the pool of young people expected to enter university in general.
The situation is exacerbated by the increasing cost of a university education, which has far outpaced the rate of inflation for decades. Many parents have grown skeptical of the value of a university education, seeing some programs’ costs unlikely to be matched by an increase in future earnings for their children.
And some see technical training through colleges to be a better investment for many young people.
That’s the generally poor outlook for university enrolment in coming decades, something that will affect agricultural economics as it will every other program.
However, smaller programs such as ag econ face a more challenging future because they are more likely to be cut or compromised in a future of declining enrolments. Some education financing is based on enrolment totals, which doesn’t favour small programs. Big programs and well-funded universities will be fighting with smaller programs and less-funded universities for a smaller number of students.
“As the pool of potential students dwindles, there will be heightened competition among institutions to attract and retain students,” says the paper, titled “The looming demographic cliff: A wake-up call for the agricultural and applied economics profession.”
Ag econ could be merged into interdisciplinary programs, departments could be merged and other measures could be undertaken by universities struggling to attract students, retain funding and remain relevant.
To keep the profession attractive and relevant to future students, the researchers recommend a broad range of actions. Ag econ departments should be reaching out to undergraduates so they can entice them before they’ve made other choices for their futures.
Offering online, virtual programs could attract people who can’t be in the physical location of the university.
Alternative programs offering “microcredentials” could also attract people who aren’t looking for full degrees.
Making it easier for people to return to finish paused degrees could help, as well as waiting lists that allow students to complete some future ag econ requirements before being fully accepted into the program.
Reaching non-traditional populations of students will be important as the population comprises more racial and ethnic backgrounds.
Programs and universities should also be reaching out directly to rural communities, they say.
As well, agricultural education outreach should be conducted in high schools so students realize the different opportunities that are before them.
While there is no crisis yet, Nayga, Liu and Kassas encourage ag econ departments and the profession to act now.
“Given the predicted drop in high school graduates, it is imperative for many agricultural economics departments to adapt to the changing landscape to ensure their sustainability and relevance,” they say.
Anatomy of an ag economist shortage
THE CONCERN: A looming long-term decline in high school graduates and university applicants could leave agricultural economics departments short of students.
THE DANGER: Without enough students, ag econ departments could be reduced and merged with other departments, creating a shortage of agricultural economists in the future.
THE RECOMMENDATIONS: A broad-based effort to attract new students should begin in high school, as well as reaching out to non-traditional communities and tackling some of the challenges to entering, financing and completing university degrees.
