Global canola production is expected to decline in 2015-16 and leading importer China is expected to increase its canola imports in the coming crop year.
The United States Department of Agriculture attaché in China issued a report last week saying China’s rapeseed imports are expected to climb to 4.5 million tonnes from 4.1 million in 2014-15.
That is in contrast to the official USDA forecast of 3.6 million tonnes of imports in 2015-16.
The attaché writes that imports in the current crop year were down from about five million tonnes the year before when importers brought in too much, attracted by low prices and large crushing capacity.
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China purchased just over 20 million tonnes of wheat, corn, barley and sorghum last year, that is well below the 60 million tonnes purchased in 2021-22.
They addressed that oversupply by importing less in the current crop year.
However, the reduction must have been focused on countries other than Canada because our exports to China in the current year are up slightly at 2.9 million tonnes at the end of April.
The official Chinese forecast for domestic new crop rapeseed production is 14.2 million tonnes, down from 14.6 million last year, due to lower seeded acreage.
The USDA attaché notes that industry sources say that the government regularly overstates the size of the crop by 4.5 million tonnes or more.
There will likely be less rapeseed available to export to China.
Oil World estimates that global production may reach only 66 million tonnes, about 1.2 million below its previous estimate and 3.2 million below a year earlier.
Agriculture Canada’s forecast for Canadian canola production in 2015-16 is 14.9 million tonnes but with the frost and dry weather in much of the Prairies this spring, that number will likely decline.
Australia’s government crop forecaster last week said it believes canola production will fall by 13 percent to three million tonnes. It believes Australian canola exports will fall about 11 percent to 2.18 million tonnes.
Analysts believe Ukraine’s rapeseed crop will fall in the new season, but market participant opinions on the crop size are mixed divided.
Predictions range from 1.5 million to two million tonnes, down from 2.2 million last year, said UkrAgroConsult, which expects to see a 15 percent drop in rapeseed exports from Ukraine.
Dry weather in France cut short the flowering period of its winter rapeseed crop, trimming yield expectations. Prospects in Germany and Poland could also be downgraded because of dry weather. Before the latest dry period the European Commission forecasts 2015 EU rapeseed production at 22.4 million tonnes, down from a record 24.3 million in 2014 due to a fall in sowings and an expected drop from record yields.
While canola and rapeseed production prospects retreat, the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast for global soybean production in 2015-16 gave little hope for a rally in the crop that dominates the oilseed field.
USDA forecast 2015-16 global soybean production at 317.58 million tonnes, down less than one million from the current year and year-end 2015-16 stocks are expected to rise almost 10 million tonnes to a little more than 93 million tonnes.
