It appears unlikely the grain-handling system will be able to achieve Agriculture Canada’s wheat export target of 16.5 million tonnes.
Shipments are 1.9 million tonnes behind last year’s pace through week 29 of the 2016-17 campaign.
That does not bode well for meeting an export target that is only 679,000 tonnes lower than last year’s total.
Tyler Russell, North American grain advisory service leader for Cargill, said wheat is so far behind because oilseeds have been flying out the door.
Canola and soybean exports are 1.1 million tonnes ahead of last year’s pace.
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“The farmer was very willing to be selling their oilseeds,” he said.
Yields were above average, prices were good and growers wanted to protect the quality of a crop that had about 13 percent moisture content.
“Lots of the canola in the fall was tough and needed to be conditioned,” said Russell.
Oilseed demand is strong so grain companies kept accepting the canola and soybeans and shipping them off to overseas markets or crushing them domestically.
“If farmers are wanting to sell hand over fist and we have ample demand for it, yeah, we just keep moving that stuff,” he said.
Russell said there has been no abatement in oilseed deliveries because grain companies are still executing existing contracts, but they will likely slow down in the spring because there are few future contracts being negotiated.
Wheat deliveries were delayed in part because of extensive fusarium and vomitoxin damage to the crop. Farmers had to assess the quality and figure out a marketing plan.
Deliveries are starting to pick up because there has been lots of contracting for February and March.
But it is doubtful the industry will achieve Agriculture Canada’s 16.5 million tonne export forecast or its four million tonne carryout estimate.
“There would have to be a significant pickup in the exports and our deliveries of wheat in order to meet some of those numbers,” said Russell.
“I think four million (tonnes of carryout) is probably on the lower end of trade expectations.”
Sales in the April through July period would have to be exceptionally strong for carryout to be that low.
The problem with that is the United States harvests its hard wheat crop starting in June.
John De Pape, president of Farmers Advanced Risk Management Company, said canola deliveries have to ease off soon.
“The delivery pace is in my view such that we can’t sustain it. It’s going to start to taper off,” he said.
“It just has to shift because we’re way behind on where we think we should be on wheat and we’re way ahead of where we think we should be on canola.”
A few weeks ago wheat stocks at primary elevators were at a record low. But deliveries appear to be on the rise, climbing steadily from 336,000 tonnes in week 27 to 374,100 tonnes in week 29.
De Pape is confident the grain-handling system can make up some of the wheat delivery and export deficit in the remaining weeks of the 2016-17 campaign.
“The last half is going to be better than the first half,” he said.
