Same weather system likely to bring rain to Canada could also exacerbate drought in U.S. hard red winter wheat region
La Nina is hanging around longer than anticipated, and that is good news for western Canadian grain farmers.
It will likely force the North American storm track further north, causing spring storms to be routed through British Columbia rather than northern California, said David Streit, chief operating officer of Commodity Weather Group.
“With that storm track tending to be displaced further to the north it increases your opportunity for activity,” he said.
Streit said conditions are already trending wetter in the northern U.S. Plains and Canadian Prairies heading into spring and he believes that is a sign of things to come.
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He sees no indications of dryness for those two regions for the 2022 growing season, which is a welcome forecast after last year’s drought.
But the lingering La Nina will prolong and exacerbate the drought in the southern U.S. Plains where the country’s hard red winter wheat crop is grown.
Streit estimates 60 percent of the region is in the grips of drought.
Much of Texas and Oklahoma is experiencing extreme to exceptional drought, while Kansas and Nebraska are in the moderate to severe categories, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
An estimated 24 percent of the HRWW crop in Kansas, 15 percent in Oklahoma and seven percent in Texas is in good-to-excellent condition. That compares to the five-year average of 30 to 40 percent.
“It’s definitely a crop that’s in trouble as far as yield potential goes,” said Streit.
The lingering La Nina will result in a continuation of dry conditions for at least another month and possibly more.
Once drought is established in the spring it is hard to break in the summer because the dry soils enhance heat over the region, he said.
“Unless something drastically changes, which doesn’t seem that likely, you’re going to average 10 percent below trend (yields),” said Streit.
If the drought persists into summer the damage level could reach 20 percent.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX, said rainfall in the HRWW growing area since Nov. 1, 2021, is the worst in at least four decades.
There is no relief in sight based on spring and summer weather models produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
“Look how dry it continues to be in the Plains,” he said during a recent webinar.
Suderman was referring to maps showing a big brown blob over the entire U.S. plains region for both spring and summer, indicating dry conditions.
By contrast, the Midwest was coloured green, indicating wet conditions for both spring and summer.
Basically, anything east of the Mississippi River will be wet and anything west will be dry, according to the European models.
If those spring and summer predictions turn out to be true, the U.S. could see a repeat of 2021’s devastating total U.S. wheat yield of 44.3 bushels per acre, said Suderman.
That would compound the potential problems of growing and exporting winter wheat crops in Ukraine and Russia, as well as reports out of China that its crop is the worst in the country’s history.
Streit is also concerned about the white winter wheat crop in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S.
That area was experiencing drought in the fall and there has been no reprieve during winter. He said the spring forecast is not promising either.
The soft red winter wheat crop experienced an “amazingly strong cold push” on the weekend that likely burned back some top growth but there is adequate moisture in the region, so the crop should recover.
“At this point we’re just kind of looking at a run-of-the-mill sort of normal type of soft red wheat crop this year,” he said.
