Canola posted a strong finish to the week, propelled by a slightly bullish Statistics Canada report today and a weaker loonie.
November canola closed at $403.80 per tonne, up $5.60 on the day and up $8.50 on the week.
The weekly gain was 2.2 percent.
On Friday, Statistics Canada forecast the canola crop at 14.08 million tonnes. That was up from the August report but traders on average expected the number to be about a half million tonnes higher.
StatCan’s all-wheat estimate was 27.48 million tonnes, slightly less than its August estimate and less than the trade expectation of 28 million tonnes.
The StatCan survey was done early in September, right when the rain and snow was stalling field work and downgrading quality.
Producers might have been a bit pessimistic about yields at that point. Anecdotal reports from the last couple of weeks are that yields faired a little better than expected.
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Canola futures also benefited from the sharp decline in the Canadian dollar. The U.S. buck soared against most currencies after the monthly U.S. jobs report came in better than expected.
U.S. unemployment fell to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent the month before. That raises the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year.
Soybeans fell more than one percent today on early harvest results showing stronger than expected yields.
“The harvest progress in beans is going to be north of 30 percent for Monday. I don’t know about corn, maybe pushing 20 percent. An awful lot of combines went to beans last week. Yields are still phenomenal,” Roy Huckabay, an analyst at brokerage the Linn Group, told Reuters.
A monthly report from private forecaster Informa also weighed on soybeans.
Informa raised its soybean yield estimate to 48.5 bushels per acre from 46.5, and raised its production forecast to 4.017 billion bu. from 3.857 billion, Reuters reported.
The firm pegged U.S. 2014 corn production at 14.395 billion bu., with a yield of 176.4 bu. per acre. That was up from its report last month that pegged the crop at 14.024 billion bu. with a yield of 171.8 bu. per acre.
The firm calculated the harvested area for corn at 81.611 million acres and for soybeans at 82.880 million acres, Reuters said.
Still, November soybeans closed the week up two cents a bu. and up 10 cents from the 4 ½ year low set on Wednesday.
Corn and Chicago wheat edged higher today on bargain buying.
But Minneapolis spring wheat rose about 1.5 percent today on the lower than expected wheat number from Statistics Canada.
December corn rose just 0.1 percent on the week while Minneapolis wheat climbed 1.9 percent.
ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2014 403.80 +5.60 +1.41%
Canola Jan 2015 409.90 +5.60 +1.39%
Canola Mar 2015 416.60 +5.40 +1.31%
Canola May 2015 422.90 +5.50 +1.32%
Canola Jul 2015 428.10 +5.40 +1.28%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014 202.00 +3.00 +1.51%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014 206.00 +3.00 +1.48%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015 216.00 +4.00 +1.89%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014 320.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014 326.50 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015 327.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2014 114.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2014 116.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2015 119.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2014 912.25 -12.25 -1.33%
Soybeans Jan 2015 920.5 -12.5 -1.34%
Soybeans Mar 2015 928.5 -13 -1.38%
Soybeans May 2015 935.5 -13.75 -1.45%
Soybeans Jul 2015 941.25 -14.5 -1.52%
Soybeans Aug 2015 944 -14.25 -1.49%
Soybean Meal Oct 2014 308 -0.7 -0.23%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014 298.8 -2.5 -0.83%
Soybean Meal Jan 2015 297.4 -2.8 -0.93%
Soybean Oil Oct 2014 32.29 -0.38 -1.16%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014 32.42 -0.38 -1.16%
Soybean Oil Jan 2015 32.68 -0.38 -1.15%
Corn Dec 2014 323.25 +0.5 +0.15%
Corn Mar 2015 336.25 +0.5 +0.15%
Corn May 2015 345 +0.75 +0.22%
Corn Jul 2015 352.75 +0.75 +0.21%
Corn Sep 2015 360.75 +1 +0.28%
Oats Dec 2014 342.25 -2.25 -0.65%
Oats Mar 2015 326.5 -3.5 -1.06%
Oats May 2015 317.75 -3.25 -1.01%
Oats Jul 2015 313 -3.5 -1.11%
Oats Sep 2015 317.25 -3.25 -1.01%
Wheat Dec 2014 485.75 +3 +0.62%
Wheat Mar 2015 497 +1 +0.20%
Wheat May 2015 505.25 +0.5 +0.10%
Wheat Jul 2015 513.75 +0.5 +0.10%
Wheat Sep 2015 525.5 +0.25 +0.05%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 543.5 +8 +1.49%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 558.25 +7.5 +1.36%
Spring Wheat May 2015 569.25 +6.75 +1.20%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 579.75 +6.5 +1.13%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 591 +6.5 +1.11%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 568 +6.5 +1.16%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 568.75 +5 +0.89%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 570.5 +4.75 +0.84%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 566.5 +4.75 +0.85%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 578.5 +5 +0.87%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell $1.27 at $89.74 US per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 88.84 cents US, down from 89.68 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1256 Cdn.
In unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 29.14 points, or 0.20 percent, at 14,789.78.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 207.55 points, or 1.24 percent, to 17,008.6, the S&P 500 gained 21.58 points, or 1.11 percent, to 1,967.75 and the Nasdaq Composite added 45.43 points, or 1.03 percent, to 4,475.62.
For the week, the TSX was down 1.6 percent, the Dow was down 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 was down 0.8 percent and the Nasdaq was down 0.8 percent.
