Wheat futures have been on the rise due in part to the deteriorating condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop.
Much-needed rain forecast for the important southern plains region did not materialize last weekend, placing the hard red winter wheat crop in further jeopardy in what the National Climatic Data Center has deemed the driest start to a year since 1895.
“Wheat is a tough crop,” said Rick Kochenower, area research and extension specialist with Oklahoma State University.
“The old saying we have down here is you have to kill it nine times before you really kill it.”
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But some of the early- and late-seeded crop in the High Plains region of the U.S., which includes western segments of Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas and Colorado, has used up its nine lives.
“This stuff is dying. It is turning brown and grey and dying,” he said.
He speculated that 10 to 15 percent of the early- and late-seeded crops in that region have been wiped out by drought.
Producers who timed their seeding better still have decent production prospects, although they are losing yield potential by the day. Their crops are starting to turn blue, a sure sign of drought stress.
“We need rain,” said Kochenower.
The Central Plains region, which runs through Dallas, central Oklahoma and central Kansas, is in much better shape.
“They’ve still got a pretty good chance of getting (an) average (crop),” he said.
Overall, a significant portion of southern plains winter wheat is in trouble, according to state crop reports.
As of March 23, 40 percent of Oklahoma’s crop was in very poor to poor condition compared to 24 percent in the good to excellent categories. Most of the state was experiencing moderate to severe drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Conditions are worse in Texas, where 57 percent of the winter wheat was rated poor to very poor and only 12 percent good to excellent. A large portion of the state is undergoing severe to exceptional drought.
Bill Spiegel, spokesperson for Kansas Wheat, said the eastern half of his state is in good shape, while the west is abnormally dry and looking fair at best.
The Kansas crop report shows 17 percent of the winter wheat is ranked poor to very poor and 42 percent is in good to excellent condition.
The state is considered very dry, with a portion experiencing moderate drought.
“Generally we’re sitting in decent shape here in Kansas coming out of the winter dormancy,” he said.
Despite having a better outlook than its neighbours to the south, Spiegel expressed concern about the western half of the state.
“That scares me a little bit. Our key wheat production regions have missed some decent rains. That makes me nervous for the future of this particular crop.”
Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma accounted for 46 percent of last year’s U.S. winter wheat plantings. Growers in Kansas planted 9.9 million acres, followed by Texas at 5.9 million and Oklahoma at 5.7 million.
Spiegel believes most of the Kansas crop could recover if it received 25 to 50 millimetres of rain. As of March 23, forecasters were predicting a storm would move through the southern Plains region on March 26 delivering six to 25 mm of rain.
“We’re kind of keeping an eye on the weather forecast and our knees on the floor looking skyward for some divine intervention,” said Spiegel.
