Feed barley prices keep looking better, although they won’t rise for long, says one analyst.
“The guys who want to go open market should view this rise as an opportunity to move their barley,” said Errol Anderson of Pro Market Communications.
“The person who holds it longest is going to take a hit.”
Prices on both the cash market and wheat board Pool Return Outlook look good because of recent increases. On Nov. 27, the wheat board boosted its feed barley outlook price by $6 a tonne. Around Lethbridge, barley is fetching $2.95 per bu. delivered, Anderson said.
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The problem with the cash market is that most feedlots have already bought enough to last until February, and by mid-February those feedlots will probably have bought all the barley they need. Cash prices after that will probably fall, Anderson said.
“There’s enough barley to go around this year.”
That has also ended the huge imports of American corn into Alberta’s feedlot alley.
Some hog producers have continued to bring in corn, but most cattle feeders have switched back to barley, Anderson said.
The wheat board credited good demand from Middle East buyers and the lack of exportable stocks among Black Sea exporters for its feed barley PRO increase. But it said the large U.S. corn crop will keep those prices from rising too high.
The wheat board PRO left milling wheat prices untouched from the October PRO, but it raised durum PROs by $2-$4 a tonne.
Malting barley PROs dropped by $1 a tonne.
Durum’s outlook has improved because of unexpectedly good demand from European Union buyers and a lack of export competition from traditional rivals such as Syria.
The wheat board said overall gains in world grain prices in U.S. dollar terms were mostly offset by the increase in value of the Canadian dollar.
