The Food and Agriculture Organization expects the country’s exports to hit seven million tonnes by 2025
Canada will continue to be the world leader in the pulse trade for years to come, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.
The FAO is forecasting Canadian exports of seven million tonnes by 2025, up from an average of 5.1 million tonnes in the 2013-15 period.
No other country will come close to that level of sales. The next highest is Australia with a forecast 2.3 million tonnes, followed by Myanmar’s 1.7 million tonnes.
Canadian pulse production is forecast to increase to 8.7 million tonnes from an average of six million tonnes over that same time frame. That would rank second behind India’s 23.5 million tonnes.
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Pulse Canada president Greg Cherewyk said his organization does not set production or export targets.
Instead, it is focused on market diversification. It has set a target of finding new markets and opportunities for 25 percent of Canadian production by 2025.
It estimates that would amount to about two million tonnes of production. That implies eight million tonnes of total production by 2025, which is a little lower than the FAO’s forecast.
Canada exported a record 6.27 million tonnes of pulses in 2019, which is already approaching the FAO’s seven million tonne forecast for 2025.
“While Pulse Canada doesn’t do projections, it’s not unreasonable to think that there will be continued growth in the coming five years,” Cherewyk said in an email.
The report mentioned a few worrisome developments for exporters like Canada.
The annual growth rate in pulse consumption is forecast to decline to 1.8 percent per year between 2016 and 2025 compared to 2.8 percent per year between 2006 and 2015.
India’s pulse production is projected to grow, reducing the country’s reliance on imports. That trend is already occurring with imports declining sharply the past few years.
China’s pulse consumption is expected to tail off substantially on both the feed and human consumption side of the business.
The growth in Chinese imports will fall to 0.9 percent per year in the 2016-25 period compared to 18 percent per year during the previous decade.
Cherewyk disputes that particular finding.
He said China has been an “incredibly important” market for Canada, especially since exports to India have been on the decline starting in November 2017.
Canadian yellow peas are a key ingredient in the manufacture of vermicelli noodles, and there are other food and feed opportunities in China.
“There are no signs that Chinese demand for yellow peas will diminish, and in fact, with the investment we’ve seen in the fractionation industry, there’s potential for growth,” he said.
The real big expansion market will be sub-Saharan Africa with an estimated annual growth rate of 6.1 percent in the 2016 -25 period compared to a 1.2 percent annual decline the previous decade.
The FAO forecasts that global pulse consumption is expected to reach 96.5 million tonnes per year by 2025, a 21 million tonne increase over the average level between 2013-2015.
Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 6.8 million tonnes of that growth, compared to 5.1 million tonnes for India. It is rapidly becoming a huge market for pulses.
Cherewyk said the 25 by 2025 strategy does not target market development work in particular regions like sub-Saharan Africa.
Instead, the focus is on developing sustained demand for Canadian pulses based on their unique attributes.
“Traditional markets such as India and China will still play an important role going forward, but the vision for the future is to ensure Canadian pulses own the new markets that value nutritious and sustainable ingredients,” he said.
Demand for pulse flour and protein has exploded in the past couple of years.
“The trends certainly have us moving in the right direction,” said Cherewyk.
That is why Pulse Canada will continue developing its “healthy people, healthy planet” brand and generating knowledge on how pulse ingredients perform in a variety of food applications.
“Investments are being made in areas where the industry believes it can differentiate Canadian product and make it difficult to substitute pulses from other origins,” he said.
