MONTREAL, Que. — Brenda Tjaden Lepp has a tough time believing Statistics Canada’s mustard acreage estimate.
“We were using 15,000 acres for Alberta. They put 105,000 acres into Alberta,” said the chief analyst of FarmLink Marketing Solutions.
“What would incentivize those guys to put a bunch of mustard acres in the ground?”
So when Tjaden Lepp fills out her supply and demand chart, she is sticking with 245,000 mustard acres across Canada instead of Statistics Canada’s 365,000 acre number.
FarmLink sees 97,000 tonnes of mustard production and 194,000 tonnes of supply, which would be the lowest total since 2008-09.
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Tjaden Lepp thinks prices will be flat unless the government acreage estimate is true.
She was also surprised by the forecast for 180,000 acres of chickpeas. FarmLink sees 265,000 acres.
“I’m not inclined to take my acres down,” Tjaden Lepp told delegates attending the Canadian Special Crops Association’s annual conference.
Moisture prevents some seeding in southeastern Saskatchewan and there was a seed shortage.
However, she said it was probably a popular choice in southwestern Saskatchewan, based on a pre-seeding analysis of $200 returns per acre for chickpeas versus $10 per acre on some competing crops.
“It was stunning how much more money (farmers) were making on chickpeas this year than anything else,” said Tjaden Lepp.
FarmLink forecasts 191,000 tonnes of production and 214,000 tonnes of supply, which would be the largest supply since 2007-08. Canada is going to need a big export program.
She had no problem with Statistics Canada’s 282,000 acre bean estimate, leading to a sizeable crop.
“Yield here is looking fantastic. I don’t think we’ve ever seen such great yield potential in southern Manitoba.”
FarmLink sees 227,000 tonnes of production, 272,000 tonnes of supply and 32,000 tonnes of carryout, the largest since 2006-07.
Prices could be modestly lower.
Statistics Canada forecasts 300,000 acres of canaryseed, which is higher than FarmLink’s 275,000 acres.
Tjaden Lepp said there is still a “mountain of uncertainty” surrounding Mexican import regulations and last year’s puzzling production number.
FarmLink predicts flat prices despite what appears to be a tight supply of 157,000 tonnes, which is up from last year but well below the previous 10-year average.
“There has been some loss in demand,” she said.
Sunflower seed is barely hanging on in Manitoba. Statistics Canada forecast 125,000 acres. FarmLink estimates 70,000 acres because of severe crop disease challenges.
Yields look strong. FarmLink expects an average of 53 bushels per acre, up 10 bu. over last year’s average. That would yield 48,000 tonnes of crop and 98,000 tonnes of supply.
Tjaden Lepp sees slightly weaker prices for the crop because of increased supply and stagnant demand unless there is a significant problem with the U.S. soybean crop, which lifts all oilseed prices.
