We hope you will turn to our website for coverage of the seeded acreage re-ports from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Department of Agriculture this week.
They occur June 29 and June 30, after our deadline.
There is always potential for surprise in these reports, but if they show numbers similar to what the trade expects, then an interesting question develops: how high can spring wheat futures rise if corn and soybeans add no support?
The weather forecasts into July show the Midwest enjoying favourable crop growing weather. That implies that corn will enter the important flowering period in moderate temperatures and with good moisture in much of the region.
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Corn and soybean futures have already been falling, and that trend seems likely to continue as long as the weather co-operates.
Meanwhile, the U.S. spring wheat crop is suffering from drought on the northern Plains. That has driven up the new crop December Minneapolis futures price to about US$6.67 a bushel.
That puts it almost $3 higher than the December Chicago corn contract. If history repeats itself, a $3 premium would be about as good as you can hope.
It is rare when spring wheat enjoys that much of a premium over corn. The last time was in the spring of 2014, but at that time corn was also enjoying a modest rally.
The only time in recent history that spring wheat futures independently rallied to a $3 premium over a falling corn market was in the fall of 2013 when the record large but low-quality Canadian crop dove up protein premiums and Argentina’s wheat crop forecast was smaller than expected.
That rally lasted only a few weeks before the weight of ample supplies of other crops dragged the price down.
