PHOENIX, Ariz. — A U.S. grain market analyst is warning growers that fertilizer supplies could be tight this spring.
“One thing that scares the hell out of me when it comes to this fertilizer market is that we didn’t get much down last fall,” said Chip Flory, host of Market Rally Radio.
It means a lot of growers will need to apply more fertilizer in spring.
He’s also nervous that many farmers haven’t made up their mind what they will plant. It looks like it will be a last-minute decision for a lot of growers.
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Farmers will need plenty of fertilizer if the decision is to plant more corn, but they might be in for a rude awakening when they call their local retailer.
“You might not be able to get it this spring, guys. It’s that tight of a situation out there,” Flory told delegates attending the 2015 Commodity Classic.
It doesn’t help that many U.S. states have experienced a colder than normal winter, which has some people forecasting a delayed start to spring planting that would create a smaller window for fertilizer application.
Fertilizer retailers tend to pull product out of Canada when supplies are tight in the United States, which can lead to a shortage north of the border, where the crop is planted later than in the U.S.
Flory thinks growers should have already bought half of their spring phosphorus and potash needs and should be buying the other half right away. They might want to hold off on the last one-third of their nitrogen requirements.
Flory said growers should have already booked all their spring diesel needs.
Mark Gold, owner of Top Third Ag Marketing, said crude oil prices toppling from $105 per barrel to $48 in the last few months means it is time to lock in at least half the farm’s diesel requirements.
There is a camp that says diesel prices could fall as low as $30.
“If we get there, by all means lock in the rest of it,” he said.
