It appears canaryseed growers have come to their senses and will be seeding an appropriate amount of the crop in 2005, says a Saskatoon commodity broker.
According to Statistics Canada’s March seeding intentions report, Saskatchewan farmers will plant 420,000 acres of the crop this spring, which is half as big as last year’s area.
“That’s encouraging as far as I’m concerned. It should bode well for later on,” said Merv Berscheid of CGF Brokerage and Consulting.
In January, Berscheid warned canaryseed growers attending Pulse Days that they were sitting on two years of supply. But as of April 18, Saskatchewan Agriculture was still expecting farmers to seed 650,000 acres of the crop, down only 23 percent from 2004 levels.
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The yield estimates for wheat and soybeans were neutral to bullish, but these were largely a sideshow when compared with corn.
So Berscheid was relieved to see the April 21 report from Statistics Canada calling for a 50 percent decline in plantings, which he considers an acceptable response to market signals.
“As time went along (farmers) just realized that the values aren’t going to be there so they aren’t going to seed canaryseed,” he said.
Saskatchewan Agriculture special crops specialist Ray McVicar said the province’s estimate was based on Statistics Canada’s 2004 fall planting intentions, so it was a bit outdated. If acreage drops as low as predicted, 2005 should mark the bottom of the canaryseed price cycle, he said.
“If we get that low in acres we’ll probably start to see a rebound in prices.”
Saskatchewan’s mustard acres are forecast to drop to 470,000 acres from 640,000 acres in 2004, a reduction of 27 percent. Agriculture Canada’s March 14 supply and disposition report had originally forecast a reduction of just three percent.
Aside from the canaryseed and mustard numbers, there were few surprises in the March seeding intentions report for pulse and special crops.
Canadian pea area is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.4 million acres, which analysts have been predicting since January. McVicar said that proves commodity prices are not the only factor farmers take into account when making planting decisions. Pea prices are at historical lows but acreage is expected to rival last year’s record crop, an indication that farmers are keen on decreasing their fertilizer bills by planting nitrogen-fixing crops.
Saskatchewan lentil acreage is expected to expand by 80,000 acres in 2005, reaching 1.98 million acres. Berscheid said a lot of that growth will be in reds. His company is forecasting 50 percent of the 2005 lentil crop will be large greens, 10 percent medium greens, 13 percent small greens and 27 percent reds. If that breakdown proves true, it represents a near doubling in red lentil production from 2004.
“What’s going to be the concern, if we do see those kind of acres and we do see some normal yields, is having enough processing to get (the reds) moved in a timely fashion,” said Berscheid.
Bean acres are on the rise in Manitoba, where farmers intend to plant 225,000 acres of the legume, up from 200,000 acres in 2004. Ontario growers also plan to seed more beans.
There was no chickpea estimate in the Statistics Canada report but McVicar expects a crop of about 125,000 acres.
“We’re pretty much leveling off in the 120,000 acre range and I think that’s a good thing. We’re stabilizing at a level that is quite sustainable,” he said.
