No one seems excited about the prospects for special crops for the 2004-05 crop year, although most analysts say farmers should be able to make money.
A number say there are no clear favourites or dogs for farmers to avoid come seeding time.
“I don’t think anything is jumping out at anyone,” said Brian Clancey of Stat Market Research, a special crops market information service.
“Everything is kind of doing OK. I don’t see anything in the special crops area leaping out.”
Farm marketing adviser Errol Anderson said there are no obvious choices for farmers with acreage to play with.
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Special crop carryout stocks had generally fallen in the past five years except for dry beans and chickpeas as drought reduced production but consumer demand continued.
An end to the drought in most parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta means stocks are now rising.
Agriculture Canada forecasts canaryseed carryout stocks will double from 2002-03. Its price has fallen sharply so far this crop year.
Chickpea carryout stocks are expected to go the other way, falling by two-thirds by the end of 2003-04.
Agriculture Canada is not expecting major changes in acreage for next year, according to Fred Oleson, the department’s market analysis head.
“We’re fairly flat for next year,” said Oleson, who is finalizing acreage projections for the 2004-05 year.
“There’s nothing too radical.”
Clancey said lack of excitement about special crops comes from sluggishness in the market, which is not reacting strongly to supply and demand reports.
Many buyers and sellers have moved away from the cash market in favour of contracted production and sales, leaving few to bid prices up and down.
“We’re just not seeing the kind of demand that will allow the tightness in markets to be reflected in prices to the grower,” said Clancey.
“You don’t get the same kind of price action. Markets are not signalling shortages. There’s not enough activity in the market to allow it.”
While generally optimistic, Clancey doesn’t have any firm recommendations.
“Every commodity is like not bad, not great, and nothing is really putting out the signal ‘don’t grow me,’ ” said Clancey.
John Duvenaud of Wild Oats market newsletter said he isn’t optimistic about special crop prices for next year.
“I’m not bullish on those crops,” said Duvenaud.
“We had our good runs in lentils and mustards and so on in 01-02…. A year ago was the year to have grown them.”
Duvenaud said low supplies in commodities such as lentils forced buyers to look elsewhere for supplies, and those buyers will have to be enticed back to Canada.
“The lentil grower has got to get that market back, and that’s not as easy as serving an existing market,” said Duvenaud.
“You generally have to discount, and that’s a painful process.”
Anderson is much more optimistic, but also recommends no particular special crop.
“Growers should stick with rotations. They should have a chance to price everything profitably,” said Anderson.
But that chance will vanish if farmers do not commit to a marketing plan and take advantage of small rallies, he said.
The only advice he offers farmers is to see which way everyone is going – then run the other way.
“If you have extremely low prices for something at spring for a certain crop and no one is planning to plant it, that’s probably a signal to fix some acres in,” said Anderson.
