By this date most farmers usually know to the acre what they intend to
plant.
That’s not true this year.
“I had two farmers in my office this morning who were still deciding
what to seed, and it’s April 26,” said special crops broker Larry Weber
of Saskatoon.
“Seeding intentions are still not nailed down.”
This uncertainty is why analysts aren’t giving too much credence to the
Statistics Canada April 24 seeding intentions survey.
It isn’t that the survey was done badly. It’s just that since late
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March, when the survey was completed, a number of things have shaken up
farmers, who were already uncommitted to their plans.
“I think this is an accurate reflection of what people were thinking at
the end of March,” said Alberta Agriculture analyst Charlie Pearson.
The report forecast fewer spring wheat acres, more durum, only a slight
increase in canola, and substantial increases in barley and oats acres.
Field peas and flax were expected to drop.
Since then, dryness has continued across most of the western Prairies,
although Alberta and Manitoba have received some late moisture.
If farmers were counting on early springs rains when they told
Statistics Canada what they intended to plant, and then didn’t get
those rains, they may back out of some small seed crops such as canola,
Pearson said.
Some of the increase in barley and oats may have been due to the high
prices for those crops up until the end of March. But since then, both
barley and oats prices have collapsed.
“Barley and oats may come down a little, and spring wheat and canola
may move up a little” in response to the price changes, said Pearson.
Canadian Wheat Board weather analyst Bruce Burnett said the drought
tells a tale in the numbers in the Statistics Canada report.
Overall in Canada summerfallow acreage is down, but it is up 2.5
percent in Saskatchewan. Overall canola acreage is up, mainly in
Manitoba, but down in Saskatchewan and even in Alberta.
That shows that drought has left Saskatchewan producers fewer options
than for other farmers. Burnett said he was surprised the same results
aren’t apparent in Alberta, where dry conditions also prevail.
The Canadian spring wheat crop is forecast to be only 19.5 million
acres, the lowest since 1998’s 18.6 million acre crop. It’s a 2.3
million acre drop from last year’s crop across Canada, caused by a 2.4
million acre drop on the Prairies and a 100,000 acre increase in
Ontario.
The durum crop is forecast to be 405,000 acres above last year’s,
making it slightly above the five year average. Durum’s attractive
returns should continue.
“Next year will be probably another good year with another decent
premium over spring wheat,” said Pearson.
CWB analyst Dwayne Lee said the smaller wheat crop will not hurt
Canada’s customer relationships.
“It just changes the focus of how we market our grain,” said Lee.
“A small crop is obviously bad for farmers because they aren’t getting
paid on the bigger volume, but we market it to the higher end markets.”
Last week’s CWB pool return outlook downgraded price expectations for
wheat and barley. Crop broker Weber said that may undermine some of the
urge to grow barley this spring.
Canadian prices are being hurt by the strengthening Canadian dollar,
Weber said, and that leaves prairie farmers with seeding decisions that
are “no fun”.
