No one is sure how close to the truth is Statistics Canada’s guess at the acreage of prairie crops.
That’s because the Preliminary Estimates of Principal Field Crop Areas survey was compiled in the midst of the late spring deluge that changed many farmers’ plans.
For instance, the survey reports that Manitoba farmers intended to increase their soybean plantings by 36 percent, but notes that “unfavourable conditions” meant those intentions might not be realized.
Most Manitoba crop watchers believe that because of the spring wetness, soybeans won’t be rising from last year’s 220,000 acres to the 300,000 Statistics Canada expects, but instead will fall well below 200,000 acres.
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But Canadian Wheat Board analyst David Przednowek said the survey still serves a useful purpose.
“It sets a baseline and people make up their minds from there,” he said.
Even though the acres estimated are unlikely to be correct, “the trends are there.”
The survey found that farmers, by the beginning of June, planned to cut durum acres by more than 10 percent and increase canola acres by almost 10 percent. Spring wheat acres are expected to increase slightly.
The survey estimates barley and oats acres will fall from 2003.
Dry pea, lentil and other pulse crop acreages are expected to increase.
The increase of canola acres to 12.7 million was on the low end of analysts’ expectations of 12.5-13.5 million acres, according to Ag Commodity Research. Last year’s small crop grew on about 11.7 million acres.
Alberta farmers were expected to increase their canola acres by almost 20 percent, a number that might be accurate because Alberta was the least affected by spring seeding delays, said Errol Anderson of Pro Market Communications.
Anderson said the survey numbers will be modified by traders but still give a good understanding of what farmers hoped to grow a few weeks ago.
“You can’t ignore it,” said Anderson. “What traders will do is compensate for the weather.”
He said this report’s impact is minimal because everyone’s eyes are now on the advancing U.S. crops. Most prairie crop prices will be far more affected by moderate changes in the state of U.S. crops than by anything but large shifts in Canadian acreage.
