MELBOURNE, Australia (Reuters) — Rainfall across most of Australia’s grain-growing regions in July has lifted forecasts for the country’s 2025 wheat harvest to around 33 million tons, traders say.
A large crop in Australia, one of the biggest wheat exporters, would add to pressure on prices that are already low due to ample global supply. Benchmark Chicago wheat futures are near their lowest levels since 2020.
In early June, when parts of Australia were still parched, the agriculture ministry said it expected wheat production this year of 30.6 million tons.
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Australia is now likely to match or beat last year’s production of around 34 million tons, said Mark Lewis, chief operating officer of Riordan Grains.
Some cropping areas, particularly South Australia and parts of Victoria, suffered from dry starts to the growing season, but rain has dampened soil, and Australia’s weather bureau is forecasting above-median rain for most farms in the next three months.
“It feels like the weather patterns have changed, and spring looks a lot more positive than it did,” Lewis said.
Sam Napier, a director at Cargill, said the crop now “has to be bigger” than 33 million tons.
A poll of 50 members of his audience at the Australian Grains Industry Conference found that more than half thought the crop, due to be harvested in the last quarter of the year, would end up larger than currently forecast.
Four other traders and analysts told Reuters they had raised their forecasts and now expected the crop to come in between 31 and 34 million tons.
“The potential has improved,” said Paul Smith, chief marketing and trading officer at CBH.
“If we were having this discussion in mid-May or early June, the sentiment would definitely have been different,” he said.
Australia has had a run of large harvests this decade thanks to favourable weather and improving farm management.
Annual wheat production averaged 33.8 million tons in the five years to 2024, agriculture ministry data show. In the five years before that, it averaged 21.4 million tons.
