Pea markets have been slow to develop but everything should sort itself out by the end of the marketing year, says a crop analyst.
Speaking at Agri-Trend’s 2009 Farm Forum Event, Marlene Boersch, managing partner of Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc., said she expects 277,000 tonnes of carryout for the crop.
“It’s not super burdensome,” she said.
Boersch forecasts 2.44 million tonnes of exports. Only 748,000 tonnes of that total have been shipped year-to-date.
That represents 31 percent of the anticipated export program. The industry would usually like to see 40 to 45 percent of exports moved by Christmas.
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“That is probably not going to happen on the peas,” said Boersch.
Slow movement during the first two months of the shipping season is why yellow pea prices dipped as low as $4.50 per bushel. Lately they have bounced back to nearly $6.
That is due to positive signals from India, which had a disappointing summer harvest prompting the government to announce plans to boost winter pulses by 3.7 million acres over normal plantings.
Boersch is skeptical that the government can meet that goal because other crops are more profitable.
She has calculated the return per acre for various crops based on India’s minimum support prices. Chickpeas and lentils rank fourth and fifth respectively out of the six crops she looked at. Wheat, barley and rapeseed are all more profitable, which was the case the preceding two years.
She expects increased exports to India as the 2009-10 crop year progresses. Another encouraging sign is that chickpea prices have risen in India. Yellow peas are blended into chickpea flour.
Boersch advised growers to sell the remainder of their peas during upticks in the market when prices hit $6.50 to $7 per bu.
They might want to be a little more aggressive on lentils, now experiencing “extraordinary” prices because India has imported lots of Canadian large green lentils as a replacement for a shortfall in pigeon peas.
“At these prices I still think you should be halfway sold,” Boersch told growers.
Green lentil supply in Canada is tight and will stay that way for the remainder of the year. She forecasts 39,674 tonnes of large green carryout and 235,443 tonnes of reds. Today’s red prices look attractive considering the higher carryout estimate. Growers should consider selling more of that class.
Looking to 2010, Boersch expects large green lentils will deliver the highest return per acre out of the 16 crops she studied. Red lentils rank third.
That’s why analysts are forecasting more lentil acres. Weber Commodities predicts 2.7 million acres, a 16 percent increase over last year’s record crop.
Jeff Jackson, sales and marketing manager of Wigmore Farms, said there will be more lentils and likely more peas.
Lentil prices will likely fall if growers plant another 250,000 acres of the crop. He said growers might want to consider signing new crop contracts in the low 20 cent per pound range.
