Agriculture Canada’s latest special crops outlook closely reflects what market analysts were predicting in January at Pulse Days in Saskatoon.
Pea and lentil acres are forecast to remain unchanged, while substantial declines in mustard and canaryseed plantings will more than offset increases in bean and chickpea seeding.
“Agriculture Canada has a pretty good handle on things,” said crop broker and Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory publisher John Duvenaud.
Peas will again dwarf other special crops with plantings expected to equal last year’s 3.4 million acres.
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The yield estimates for wheat and soybeans were neutral to bullish, but these were largely a sideshow when compared with corn.
Producers are drawn to the nitrogen-fixing ability of the crop.
“The peas are going to be popular because of the fertilizer price,” said Duvenaud.
In most years, 40 percent of the pea crop is green and 60 percent is yellow, but Duvenaud expects a slightly higher proportion of greens in 2005-06.
Prices for greens are much stronger than yellows, which have languished behind feed pea prices buoyed by rising soybean meal markets, he said.
The situation is similar for lentils, with Agriculture Canada forecasting 1.8 million acres, down slightly from last year’s 1.9 million acres.
But Statistics Canada slightly overestimated the 2004 crop, said Murad Al-Katib, president of Saskcan Pulse Trading Inc., a large lentil processing and exporting firm.
“So I see it as very unchanged compared to last year.”
As is the case with peas, Al-Katib expects a transition within lentil classes with growers planting more small greens and reds and fewer large greens due to unusual price signals.
“The small greens are the highest price of all lentils right now,” said Al-Katib, noting that large greens normally fetch a premium.
One surprise in the government’s estimate is the canaryseed number of 615,000 acres, down 30 percent from last year’s 879,000 acre crop.
That is identical to what was grown two years ago and it doesn’t bode well for prices, said CGF Brokerage & Consulting analyst Merv Berscheid.
The agency is projecting 230,000 tonnes of canaryseed production in 2005-06 on top of 140,000 tonnes of carryout from the previous crop.
“Wow, that’s almost two year’s supply. We have to get that reined in somehow,” said Berscheid.
He was heckled at Pulse Days when he said producers should jump on prices of 11 to 12 cents per pound, but new crop production contracts are at 91Ú2 cents per lb. and show no signs of improving.
“I would assume that a lot of farmers are going to be storing this stuff and holding out for later on.”
Dry beans are one of the few special crops on the rise. Agriculture Canada is forecasting 469,000 acres, up 16 percent from 2004-05.
Another bright spot is chickpeas. Chickpea acreage is expected to expand slightly to 133,000 acres from 116,000 in 2004-05, spurred by strong prices and a poor Mexican harvest.
