Conflicting reports are surfacing on the status of the Turkish lentil crop.
Weber Commodities Ltd. reports that crop conditions have deteriorated.
A March 2 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service report forecast a 280,000 tonne Turkish lentil crop, up from 100,000 tonnes in 2008 but only 58 percent of the normal output of 483,000 tonnes. Poor seed supply was blamed for the smaller than average crop estimate.
Larry Weber said the talk at the International Pulses Trade and Industry Confederation conference in Antalya, Turkey, April 17-20 was that the 2009 crop would be in the 100,000 to 200,000 tonne range.
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At the lower end of that scale, Turkey would be back at last year’s dismal drought-reduced production levels, which would bode well for Canadian red lentil exports.
According to the USDA, Turkey, which is usually a net exporter of lentils, imported about 191,700 tonnes of the crop in 2008 due to the drought, 91 percent of which came from Canada.
But another report paints a different picture of Turkish lentil production. It contends that prospects have been steadily improving.
Last December, the USDA issued an early warning that the Middle East was bone dry heading into the 2009-10 crop year on the heels of a 2008 drought that ravaged crop yields from western Turkey to eastern Iran.
But as 2009 unfolds, consecutive droughts are looking less likely, according to a Turkish consultant, who provided a crop update to Saskatchewan Pulse Growers.
The report indicates that the Turkish lentil crop is in good condition due to well-timed spring rain.
“Although total rainfall from October until April seems low compared to the long-term average, crop growth is better than expected,” stated the report.
“This is perhaps due to the timing and the frequency of rainfall combined with non-stressful temperatures.”
- o drought or heat stress was reported with the exception of one region of the country.
“Yield estimates may be better than expected,” according to the report.
Garth Patterson, executive director of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers, said the report concurs with what he has been hearing from members of the trade. The Turkish minister of agriculture also reports good growing conditions.
“There’s less in the ground but what is there looks good,” said Patterson.
He is under the impression that Turkey will produce about 200,000 tonnes of lentils, which may be enough for its domestic market but will once again limit the country’s ability to export.
India and Australia, two other key red lentil producing regions, also have poor crops.
“We’re the only region with export quantities. That’s what is keeping prices up,” said Patterson.
The other thing to keep in mind is that yields could still be downgraded in Turkey if there is a sudden increase in temperature in mid or late April.
