I’m looking at two unrelated items this week: the fall weather outlook and the potential for North African durum demand.
I get the impression there is a wide range of crop maturity this year.
Combines are running on winter wheat and pulse crops and in some areas harvest is not far off for large acreage crops, but in other areas I hear recent wet weather and cooler temperatures have allowed canola to continue blooming.
As is always the case, a frost-free fall is needed to get all this crop safely in the bin with good quality.
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Environment Canada forecasts a better than average chance for above normal temperatures in Western Canada in its three-month August to October outlook.
The chance for warm weather improves the farther west you go.
The long-term forecasts from the U.S. National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center appear to back up this prediction.
The strengthening El Nino in the Pacific is one reason for the warm forecast.
Strong El Ninos tend to cause winters in Western Canada to be drier and warmer than the average.
The fall outlook could be good for this year’s harvest but if the winter snow pack is smaller than usual, those who suffered from dry soils on the western Prairies this season might be in for more of the same next spring.
Turning to North Africa, the crop harvest is wrapping up so we have a better idea of what their durum demand might be.
Algeria is usually a big buyer of Canadian durum.
In the crop year that just ended, Algeria was the No. 2 buyer, after Italy.
Reuters reports that the Algerian ministry of agriculture expects that grain imports in 2015-16 will increase because of another disappointing domestic crop.
The government expects its own grain crop will be three to 3.5 million tonnes because of dry weather. It produced 3.4 million tonnes in 2014 and the five-year average is about 5.1 million.
Neighbouring Morocco might buy less durum this year.
In the 2014-15 crop year it was Canada’s third largest customer.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture attaché in Morocco notes that domestic production of wheat, durum and barley rose to 11.5 million tonnes, up about 70 percent from the year before.
The attaché expects imports of all types of wheat will fall 33 percent to 2.8 million tonnes but most of the decline will come in wheat.
The report forecasts durum imports at 500,000 tonnes, down only 13 percent from the 577,000 imported in 2014-15.
In the end, the increase in imports to Algeria and decrease to Morocco might simply balance each other, leading to steady durum exports to North Africa.
But with a smaller durum crop in Canada to export this year, that should provide good support to the price.
The asking price at the West Coast for No. 1 durum 13 percent protein July 31 was $515.20 per tonne, up about $90 over the same time last year.
